000 AXNT20 KNHC 090527 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST THU NOV 09 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE SIGNATURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W S OF 14N MOVING W 5-10 KT. WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE SIGNATURE AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 6N29W 9N40W 7N48W 9N54W 10N62W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-11N BETWEEN 27W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE SE US WITH THE UPPER LOW ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR WILMINGTON AND COVERING THE GULF N OF 21N WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W ACROSS W CUBA INTO THE W CARIBBEAN SEA. ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE W ATLC. DRY CONTINENTAL AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE GULF WITH A 1014 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N91W. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL FEATURE TO MOVE INTO THE GULF IS AN UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER W TEXAS AND CENTRAL MEXICO. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OVER COLOMBIA NW ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. HOWEVER AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS W CUBA NEAR 23N82W TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N88W AND A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CUBA NEAR 23N80W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 17N87W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM SE OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 12N W OF 78W IN THE SW CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR PUERTO RICO COVERING THE E CARIBBEAN. THUS...REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS RATHER CLEAR AGAIN TONIGHT WITH SOME PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 73W USHERED IN ON THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE SE US AND GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC N OF 22N W OF 70W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BOUNDARY EXTENDING THROUGH 32N73W CROSSING THE BAHAMAS INTO THE FAR SE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER HIGH OVER PUERTO RICO EXTENDS A RIDGE N OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC TO BEYOND 32N63W PROVIDING ENOUGH DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION N OF 24N FROM 62W-72W. BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N40W S ALONG 18N45W THEN WSW TO 12N53W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N36W S ALONG 26N40W THEN W TO 23N48W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO 23N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 26N FROM 30W TO THE FRONT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR COVERS THE W TROPICAL ATLC S OF 20N W OF 40W INTO THE E HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN AND THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 38W-54W. STRONG UPPER HIGH REMAINS IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH A RIDGE COVERING THE E ATLC W OF 32W. $$ WALLACE