000 AXNT20 KNHC 081745 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST WED NOV 08 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... BROAD TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W S OF 17N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. CLEAR CYCLONIC CURVATURE NOTED IN THE LOW TO MID CLOUD FIELD ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 35W-46W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W/55W S OF 13N MOVING W 5-10 KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE WITH LITTLE CYCLONIC TURNING NOTED NEAR THE AXIS PLACEMENT...WHICH IS MORE OR LESS BASED ON CONTINUITY. THERE IS ONE SMALL CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE FROM 9N-10N BETWEEN 52W-56W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 7N30W 9N42W 9N52W 8N61W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED IN WAKE OF THE WAVE ALONG 39W FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 20W-35W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS NOTED FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 45W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MAIN FEATURE IN THE GULF REMAINS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE SE PORTION. THIS WAS REPOSITIONED SLIGHTLY TO THE NW ON THE 1500 UTC MAP...DUE TO THE ROPE CLOUD SEEN MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AS SEEN IN VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS MORNING. THE NEW PLACEMENT EXTENDS THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS TO A POSITION JUST N OF THE YUCATAN...ALONG 25N81W 21N92W. THIS PLACEMENT SEEMS TO REPRESENT THE TEMP/DEWPOINT DISCONTINUITY WELL...ALONG WITH THE WIND SHIFT BETWEEN SE FLORIDA AND THE KEYS. THE RADAR DATA AVAILABLE IN THE SE GULF/FL STRAITS SHOWS -SHRA IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT WITH THE DEEPER CONVECTION LIMITED TO THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS...MORE ALIGNED WITH THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND BETTER UPPER SUPPORT. BEHIND THE FRONT...A WEAK 1014 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OFF THE TX COAST NEAR 27N94W AND WILL MOVE E THROUGH THE GULF THROUGH TOMORROW. WV IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY MID TO UPPER AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE GULF IN WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGHING/LOW OVER THE SE US. AN UPPER RIDGE IS EXTENDING INTO THE FAR NW GULF FROM ITS HIGH CENTER OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM TD 19-E IS STREAMING ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH WLY UPPER FLOW. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH A COUPLE OF CENTERS NOTED IN WV IMAGERY...ONE NEAR NE NICARAGUA AND THE OTHER JUST SE OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. DRY/STABLE MID TO UPPER AIR OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS E OF 75W CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION. THERE ARE A FEW CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IN THE SW CARIBBEAN OFF THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 75W-83W. AT THE SURFACE...AS OF 1500 UTC...A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS ALIGNED BETWEEN WRN CUBA AND BELIZE ALONG 22N80W 18N88W. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS NOTED WITHIN 100NM OF THE TROUGH. THE COLD FRONT WAS REPOSITIONED JUST NW OF THE YUCATAN AS DESCRIBED ABOVE IN THE GULF SECTION. ELSEWHERE AT THE SFC...10-20KT TRADES DOMINATED E OF 75W ON THE SW PORTION OF ATLC HIGH PRESSURE. SIMILAR TRADES WILL GRADUALLY TAKE OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK AS FRONT IN NW PORTION BECOMES DIFFUSE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LAYER TROUGHING OVER THE SE US CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE SW NORTH ATLC. AS OF 1500 UTC...THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N75W TO THE FLORIDA KEYS. DEEPEST CONVECTION IN THE FORM OF NUMEROUS MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...IN THE AREA BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA...FROM 24N-32N BETWEEN 65W-76W. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH ANALYZED IN THIS REGION ALONG 23N76W 30N72W. THIS REGION ALSO SUPPORTED BY PRONOUNCED UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE TROUGHING OVER THE SE US AND THE RIDGING FROM THE CARIBBEAN. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BE ALIGNED BETWEEN ERN CUBA AND 32N68W BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT. THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC HAS AN ASSOCIATED OLD COLD FRONT BOUNDARY ALONG 32N39W 24N49W...AND IS STATIONARY FROM THAT POINT TO 23N65W. THERE MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 100NM OF THIS BOUNDARY BUT DEEP CONVECTION IS MINIMAL. N OF THIS FRONT LIES A 1027MB SFC HIGH NEAR 41N56W. E OF THIS FRONT IS A PREFRONTAL TROUGH ALONG 30N32W 21N42W...THOUGH THIS FEATURE SEEMS TO BE LOSING ITS IDENTITY. $$ WILLIS