000 AXNT20 KNHC 081117 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST WED NOV 08 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W S OF 16N MOVING W 10 KT. WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE SIGNATURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N-16N BETWEEN 35W-40W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W S OF 14N MOVING W 5-10 KT. WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE SIGNATURE AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM OF AXIS FROM 8N-11N. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 7N27W 8N40W 9N51W 8N62W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 20W-44W AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM ALONG THE COAST OF LIBERIA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE SE US WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER N ALABAMA COVERING THE GULF N OF 23N FROM FLORIDA TO TEXAS WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM WEST PALM BEACH CAPE SABLE ACROSS THE LOWER KEYS AND THE SE GULF TO OVER W CUBA INTO THE W CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SE OF THE FRONT IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. DRY CONTINENTAL AIR HAS FILTERED OVER THE GULF W OF THE FRONT LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF CLEAR THIS MORNING WITH A 1015 MB HIGH ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST. BROAD UPPER SOUTH-WESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IN THE CARIBBEAN. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE UPPER HIGH WELL INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS W CUBA NEAR 22N84W OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO NEAR 18N90W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM SE OF THE FRONT. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE S OF 13N BETWEEN 75W-83W IN THE SW CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS RATHER CLEAR AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 72W USHERED IN ON THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE SE US IS MOVING INTO THE W ATLC N OF 25N W OF 75W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM A SURFACE LOW INLAND OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH 32N79W CROSSING FLORIDA NEAR WEST PALM BEACH. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 24N. BROAD UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC WITH THE AXIS ALONG 70W. DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STRONG RIDGE IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION N OF 25N FROM 67W-74W. BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N FROM 38W-58W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING THE REGION NEAR 32N41W SW TO 25N50W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT W ALONG 23N65W THEN NE TO 26N71W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR COVERS THE W TROPICAL ATLC S OF 20N W OF 40W INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 44W-58W. AN UPPER LOW IS TO THE E NEAR 30N26W MOVING RAPIDLY NE OUT OF THE REGION AND A SURFACE REFLECTION IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 32N32W TO 22N41W. STRONG UPPER HIGH REMAINS IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC JUST SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 14N26W WITH A RIDGE COVERING THE E ATLC S OF 23N W OF 42W. $$ WALLACE