000 AXNT20 KNHC 080507 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST WED NOV 08 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/37W S OF 16N MOVING W 10 KT. WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE SIGNATURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N-16N BETWEEN 34W-40W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W S OF 14N MOVING W 5-10 KT. WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE SIGNATURE AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 5N19W 9N38W 8N44W 9N51W 8N60W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-9N BETWEEN 21W-30W AND FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 40W-43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE SE US WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER NE ALABAMA COVERING THE GULF N OF 24N FROM FLORIDA TO TEXAS WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING ALONG THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM JACKSONVILLE TO TAMPA INTO THE SE GULF TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SE OF THE FRONT MOSTLY OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. DRY CONTINENTAL AIR HAS FILTERED OVER THE GULF W OF THE FRONT LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF CLEAR TONIGHT WITH A 1015 MB HIGH ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. BROAD UPPER SOUTH-WESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IN THE CARIBBEAN. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE UPPER HIGH WELL INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 19N W OF 75W AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 12N W OF 75W IN THE SW CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS RATHER CLEAR AGAIN TONIGHT WITH SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN USHERED IN ON THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT IS OVER THE SE US WILL BE MOVING INTO THE W ATLC OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 25N W OF 68W AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. BROAD UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC WITH THE AXIS ALONG 72W. BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 40W-60W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N43W SW TO 25N51W WHERE IT COMES UP STATIONARY TO 23N65W AND THEN BEGINS TO PUSH N AS A WARM FRONT TO 28N73W...IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE SE US. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 27N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR COVERS THE W TROPICAL ATLC S OF 20N W OF 40W INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 45W-60W. AN UPPER LOW IS TO THE E NEAR 28N29W AND A SURFACE REFLECTION IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 33N31W THROUGH A WEAK 1011 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 27N34W TO 25N40W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR COVERS THE W TROPICAL ATLC S OF 20N W OF 40W INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 45W-60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW COVERING THE AREA FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN 25W-32W. STRONG UPPER HIGH REMAINS IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC JUST SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 14N27W WITH A RIDGE COVERING THE E ATLC S OF 23N W OF 40W. $$ WALLACE