000 AXNT20 KNHC 072346 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST TUE NOV 07 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A NEW TROPICAL WAVE IS ADDED ON THE 1800 UTC SURFACE MAP ALONG 35W/36W SOUTH OF 16N BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL DATA. THE WAVE SHOWS AN INVERTED-V SHAPE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 70-100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W S OF 15N MOVING W 10 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MAINLY WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS. THE WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LOW LOCATED NEAR 10N50W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 6N25W 7N34W 7N45W 8N60W. OUTSIDE FROM THE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE 4N-6N BETWEEN 15W-24W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN U.S...THE NW PORTION OF THE GULF AND NE MEXICO MOVING EAST. THE SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE GULF SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 21N97W TO 29N83W. AS OF 2100 UTC...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1006 MB SURFACE LOW LOCATED JUST NE OF TAMPA BAY ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. DOPPLER RADAR DEPICTS A LINE OF TSTMS ALONG 26N83W 27N82W...INCLUDING THE TAMPA BAY AREA. MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE AFFECTING NE FLORIDA. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA OVERNIGHT AND WILL REACH WESTERN CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WEAK 1015 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL SHIFT E INTO THE W GULF ON WEDNESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH THE UPPER HIGH LOCATED BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA. AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN AND FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE ITCZ AXIS. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS E CUBA THANKS TO A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS PRETTY QUIET. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE ATLC. BROAD UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND W ATLC WITH THE AXIS ALONG 72W. THE BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD COVERING THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 40W-60W. THE ATTENDANT FRONTAL SYSTEM ENTERS THE AREA AS A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 31N45W THEN CONTINUES SW AND W ALONG 25N55W 23N70W. THE TAIL END ON THE FRONT IS MOVING NWD. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 25N67W TO 27N72W. AN UPPER LOW IS NEAR 25N33W AND A SURFACE REFLECTION IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N30W 26N36W WHERE THERE IS A SURFACE LOW OF 1011 MB. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW COVERING THE AREA FROM 25N-31N BETWEEN 28W-35W. STRONG UPPER HIGH IS IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC JUST S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 13N25W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING N ALONG 23W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS ADVECTING ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS BETWEEN 30W-40W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED IN THIS AREA. $$ GR