000 AXNT20 KNHC 071819 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST TUE NOV 07 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 10 KT. THE POSITION FOR 07/1200 UTC WAS HELD AT 51W BASED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. AN ATLANTIC MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 24N36W TO 18N40W TO 7N52W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS EVERYWHERE AROUND THIS WAVE. ITCZ SHOWERS ARE FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 48W AND 52W...AND FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 47W AND 53W. ...THE ITCZ... 7N10N 6N20W 6N30W 7N40W 8N50W 8N54W 8N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 15W AND 40W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 33W AND 39W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH RUNS FROM MISSOURI/KENTUCKY THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS... TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 24N. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS INTERIOR MEXICO NORTH OF 21N...AND NORTHWEST OF 22N97W AT THE MEXICO COAST TO 26N90W TO 29N90W ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST. THIS TROUGH IS PROVIDING THE ATMOSPHERIC SUPPORT FOR THE COLD FRONT WHICH RUNS FROM THE EXTREME WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS TO THE MEXICO COAST ABOUT 60 NM SOUTH OF THE TEXAS BORDER. THIS FRONT HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO WATERS DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS SINCE THE 07/1200 UTC MAP ANALYSIS. A WARM FRONT GOES FROM A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N87W TO THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR TAMPA...AND THEN STRAIGHT SOUTHWARD TO NAPLES...CONNECTING TO A SURFACE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH IS THE REMNANT OF AN EARLIER SURFACE FRONT. THE TROUGH GOES FROM THE WATERS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST...CROSSES WESTERN CUBA...REACHES THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...IS ABOUT 60 NM SOUTH OF JAMAICA...AND IT REACHES THE SOUTHERN SHORES OF HAITI. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WAS ANALYZED ALONG 24N80W 23N70W 23N65W AS SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPED IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS...AND OVER THE BAHAMAS. THE WARM FRONT WAS ANALYZED AT 07/1500 UTC MUCH MORE TO THE NORTH...WELL OVER FLORIDA...AS SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW EASILY COVERED FLORIDA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH...GOING FROM CUBA TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BEYOND 32N76W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 94W AND THE MEXICO COAST. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING FROM 24N TO 26N EAST OF 85W TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE STATE. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 28N TO BEYOND 30N BETWEEN 82W AND 84W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ARE FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN 67W AND 73W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 72W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 16N83W ABOUT 60 NM NORTHEAST OF THE EASTERN END OF HONDURAS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO COVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 83W. THE COMPARATIVELY DRIEST AIR IS FROM 10N TO 18N EAST OF 73W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OBSERVED IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF WESTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND HAITI DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. THIS PRECIPITATION WAS RELATED TO A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 18N72W TO 17N78W TO 20N82W AND 23N83W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AT 76W AND NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA AT 84W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TO MIDDLE TO LEVEL CLOUDS FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 57W AND 66W MOVING WEST WITH THE PREVAILING FLOW. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA OF CLOUDS. SIMILAR CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 70W AND 74W IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N46W TO 28N50W TO 24N60W TO 23N65W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W...AND NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 44W AND 55W...IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...IN THE VICINITY OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SUPPORTING THIS STATIONARY FRONT. MIDDLE LEVEL DRY AIR IS NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 40W AND 64W. AN ATLANTIC MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 24N36W TO 18N40W TO 7N52W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS EVERYWHERE AROUND THIS WAVE. A SURFACE 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 24N37W. A TROUGH RUNS FROM THIS LOW CENTER TO 32N29W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS EAST OF THIS TROUGH. THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 14N26W...ABOUT 50 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. $$ MT