000 AXNT20 KNHC 071129 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST TUE NOV 07 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W/52W S OF 15N MOVING W 10 KT. WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE SIGNATURE AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 6N15W 8N23W 6N31W 9N48W 8N60W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE 3N-10N BETWEEN 11W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 85W MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE FAR NW GULF FROM CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO OVER TEXAS NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT. BROAD UPPER NORTH-WESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IN THE CARIBBEAN. A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED BENEATH THE UPPER FLOW NEAR 27N90W WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT EXTENDING SSE INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE E GULF N OF 22N E OF 87W TO ACROSS FLORIDA. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE UPPER HIGH WELL INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAIN ACROSS THE N CARIBBEAN FROM HISPANIOLA TO W CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION N OF 18N FROM 73W-85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 11N W OF 76W IN THE SW CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS RATHER CLEAR AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS/NICARAGUA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND W ATLC WITH THE AXIS ALONG 75W. THE BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD COVERING THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 42W-64W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N46W SW TO 25N55W WHERE IT COMES UP STATIONARY TO OVER TO HISPANIOLA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF 23N FROM 64W-70W. AN UPPER LOW IS TO THE E NEAR 25N37W AND A SURFACE REFLECTION IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH NOW EXTENDS FROM 18N40W TO 29N34W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR COVERS THE W TROPICAL ATLC S OF 20N W OF 40W INTO THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW COVERING THE AREA FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 32W-39W. STRONG UPPER HIGH IS IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC JUST OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 15N24W WITH A RIDGE COVERING THE E ATLC S OF 30N W OF 35W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS ADVECTING AN ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH COVERING THE AREA FROM 23N-30N E OF 32W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA INCLUDING THE CANARY ISLANDS. $$ WALLACE