000 AXNT20 KNHC 062351 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST MON NOV 06 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. STRONG WLY WINDS ARE STILL SHEARING THIS WAVE. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 10N30W 9N40W 8N47W 6N52W. A SMALL CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS NEAR 9N33W. THE REMAINDER OF THE AXIS IS PRETTY QUIET. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 20N-35W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND NE MEXICO. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF LATE TONIGHT. SWLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ALONG THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM AN UPPER HIGH ANCHORED IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE...A 1011 MB LOW IS NEAR 26N93W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO NEAR VERACRUZ IN MEXICO. VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SWIRL OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW. AN AREA OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED WELL E OF THE LOW/TROUGH FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 86W-89W. STRONG SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES IS CONTINUING TO PRODUCE MODERATE E TO SE WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE W ATLC...THE STATE OF FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE GULF. A NEW COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE TEXAS COAST. THE FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF WATERS TONIGHT AND WILL EXTEND FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TO NEAR TAMPICO LATE TUESDAY. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS A SQUALL LINE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING EAST ALONG SE LOUISIANA AND THE ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE BASIN WITH TWO UPPER HIGHS...ONE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N82N AND THE SECOND ONE JUST SOUTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. PATCHES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXIST ACROSS THE NRN CARIB...NAMELY N OF 17N W OF THE MONA PASSAGE. THIS MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TAIL END OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT. THIS ACTIVITY IS AFFECTING HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. AN AREA OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS APPROACHING WESTERN CUBA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. DRY AIR ALOFT DOMINATES THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF 17N. PATCHES OFF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE MOVING FROM THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN UNDER AN ELY WIND FLOW...MOST ORGANIZED NEAR AND E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND FROM PANAMA TO EASTERN NICARAGUA DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ AXIS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND MOST OF THE W-CENTRAL ATLC. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH LIES ALONG 54W/55W NORTH OF 25N. A STATIONARY FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH AND EXTENDS FROM A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW SITUATED NEAR 33N50W ALONG 27N55W 23N65W TO OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N73W. THIS FRONT IS GENERATING PATCHES OF MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 60W-74W....INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. STRONG SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES IS BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM GENERATING MODERATE NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. A CUT-OFF LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 20N40W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW INTO THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. DRY UPPER AIR RESULTING IN STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND THE LESSER ANTILLES SOUTH OF 20N. SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS ADVECTING ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE NORTH AND E ACROSS THE E ATLC TOWARDS THE CANARY ISLANDS. AN UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. AT THE SURFACE...A 1010 MB IS NEAR 19.5N36.5W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NE ALONG 25N33W 30N27W. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE MAINLY NORTH. $$ GR