000 AXNT20 KNHC 061746 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST MON NOV 06 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS IMAGERY THROUGH 1730 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. STRONG W-SWLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY SHEARING THIS WAVE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE ONLY NOTABLE ASPECT LEFT IS A WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE AREA OF LOW CLOUD TURNING AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK W AS A WEAK FEATURE. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 10N30W 9N40W 8N48W 6N55W. MOST OF THE AXIS IS PRETTY QUIET...ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 27W-33W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE GULF HAS BECOME SWLY SE OF A SHARP TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS FLOW IS ADVECTING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS CNTRL MEXICO AND THE GULF. THERE IS ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A 1014 MB LOW WHICH HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 150 NM OFF THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 28N94W AND A SFC TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS SSW FROM THE LOW TO 22N92W...BASED MAINLY ON QSCAT DATA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LOCATED WELL E OF THE LOW/TROUGH IN THE CNTRL GULF FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 86W-90W. THIS MOISTURE IS GETTING STRETCHED NE BY THE STRONG UPPER WINDS. STRONG SFC HIGH PRES....CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST COAST....IS CONTINUING TO KEEP THE PRES GRAD TIGHT IN THE E AND CNTRL GULF GENERATING E TO SE WINDS AROUND 20 TO 25 KT. DOPPLER RADAR OVER THE SE U.S. SHOWS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS E TEXAS AND LOUISIANA NOW SPREADING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL DEFINED LOW PRES SYSTEM AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF WATERS LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AND WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AND TRACK ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY MID-WEEK. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROKEN SWATH OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXIST ACROSS THE NRN CARIB...NAMELY N OF 18N W OF THE MONA PASSAGE. THIS MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TAIL END OF A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN STRONG SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN THE GULF/SW ATLC AND THE UPPER WINDS TURING NLY AROUND A BROAD UPPER HIGH IN THE EPAC S OF GUATEMALA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE MOST PREVALENT NEAR THE BOUNDARY ACROSS N PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. S AND E OF THE AREA MENTIONED ABOVE...VERY DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT IS CONTINUOUSLY ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC. THIS STABLE ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPRESSING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FROM FORMING...EXCEPT FOR PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE IN THE EXTREME SW CARIB S OF 12N W OF 77W WHICH IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. TRADE WINDS REMAIN MODERATE WITH TYPICAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS STEERED W BY THE FLOW...MOST ORGANIZED NEAR AND E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. GFS SHOWS THE STABLE MID/UPPER ENVIRONMENT TO REMAIN IN PLACE OR PUSH SLIGHTLY W OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS TRANQUIL FOR MUCH OF THE ERN AND CNTRL CARIB...ESPECIALLY S OF HISPANIOLA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS FLATTENED ACROSS THE WRN AND MUCH OF THE CNTRL ATLC WITH STRONG WLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW NOTED ON CIMSS DERIVED WINDS W OF 50W. THIS PATTERN LACKS MUCH UPPER SUPPORT FOR A PROGRESSIVE FRONT AND IT HAS NOW BECOME MAINLY STATIONARY FROM A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 32N50W SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG 25N59W 22N66W TO THE N COAST OF HAITI. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT IS W OF 54W N OF 24N...SLOWLY PRESSING E. A TIGHT SFC PRES GRAD BETWEEN A STRONG HIGH PRES OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST AND THE FRONT IS GENERATING SWIFT NE WINDS FROM 20 TO 25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT PRODUCING HIGH SEAS IN NE SWELL. STRONGLY ELONGATED UPPER RIDGING STRETCHES FROM THE CARIBBEAN NEWARD ALONG 22N51W 32N34W. THIS RIDGE HAS BECOME HAS BECOME VERY TITLED AND IS LOSING ITS IDENTITY. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 20N41W. THIS SYSTEM CUT OFF FROM A VERY SHARP TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN IN THE CNTRL/ERN ATLC OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. AN ASSOCIATED 1012 MB SFC LOW HAS FORMED NEAR 19N34W WITH THE TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING N/NE ALONG 24N34W 32N26W. A SMALL BURST OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED JUST NE OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITHIN 180 NM. HOWEVER...THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN DECREASING AS STRONG SLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE SHEARING IT AWAY FROM THE LOW. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 17N20W. THE FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH IS SPREADING DEBRIS MOISTURE N AND E TOWARDS THE CANARY ISLANDS. $$ CANGIALOSI