000 AXNT20 KNHC 060012 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SUN NOV 05 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THROUGH 34N32W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 28N37W TO 22N39W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 17N41W TO 6N48W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF THIS TROUGH...AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 18N22W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS WITHIN 90 TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THROUGH 32N36W TO 24N40W...AND WITHIN 180 TO 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 24N40W 17N44W 7N49W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 40W AND 41W...AND WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 18N33W 16N32W 15N33W 13N34W. OTHER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE UNDER THE BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS...FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 41W...AND NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W/89W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. IT IS NOT EASY TO FIND THIS WAVE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY OR IN OBSERVATIONS. ITS POSITION IS BEING EXTRAPOLATED FROM ONE MAP TO THE NEXT ONE. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS DIRECTLY RELATED TO IT. THE NORTHERN PART OF THIS WAVE GOES THROUGH BELIZE...WESTERN HONDURAS...AND EASTERN EL SALVADOR AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. ...THE ITCZ... 11N14W 9N20W 12N32W 10N43W 8N47W 6N54W 5N59W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF AFRICA FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 11W AND 14W...AND FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 14W AND 15W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 51W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW GOES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO INTERIOR MEXICO...AND IT CROSSES MEXICO AS UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO FLORIDA AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 24N TO 25N BETWEEN 88W AND 90W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 23N TO 24N BETWEEN 86W AND 88W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 89W AND 92W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH GOES FROM 23N86W TO 26N90W TO 28N92W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ALSO ARE NEAR THE TEXAS COAST FROM 28N TO 29N BETWEEN 94W AND 95W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 18N88W 20N79W. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS IN THIS AREA WITH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ON TOP OF IT. ADD LINGERING AFTERNOON HEATING AND ANY POSSIBLY LINGERING WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT WHICH REACHES NORTHERN HAITI AS OTHER FACTORS WHICH MAY BE AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS PRECIPITATION. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...MOVING TOWARD AT LEAST 70W. MIDDLE LEVEL FLOW IS FROM THE EAST. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM EAST TO WEST...NOW PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE EAST OF 80W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN BROAD LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 80W AND 86W...INCLUDING IN NICARAGUA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE BASE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES 31N/32N ALONG 59W. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TOWARD 30N60W. THIS TROUGH STILL IS PROVIDING SOME MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC SUPPORT TO THE SURFACE COLD IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N54W TO 27N60W TO 24N65W. A STATIONARY FRONT GOES FROM 24N65W TO 20N72W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 31N52W 27N58W 24N63W 22N70W 20N76W. THE NEXT BIG FEATURE IS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THROUGH 34N32W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 28N37W TO 22N39W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 17N41W TO 6N48W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF THIS TROUGH...AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 18N22W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS WITHIN 90 TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THROUGH 32N36W TO 24N40W...AND WITHIN 180 TO 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 24N40W 17N44W 7N49W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 40W AND 41W...AND WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 18N33W 16N32W 15N33W 13N34W. OTHER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE UNDER THE BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS...FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 41W...AND NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W. $$ MT