000
AXNT20 KNHC 051115
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN NOV 05 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... 
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING 
WEST 10 KT.  SHARP INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE IS NOTED WITH 
CONVECTION MOSTLY E OF THE WAVE AXIS.  ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 37W-41W.  

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA 
ALONG 87W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF 
HONDURAS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 80W-84W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM 17N-18N BETWEEN 
85W-87W.  

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N15W 11N30W 15N43W 10N53W 
9N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 
7N-9N BETWEEN 13W-16W...FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 20W-26W...AND FROM 
10N-15N BETWEEN 27W-31W.  

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA IS PRODUCING SURFACE 
RIDGING OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  WINDS ARE ELY AT 20-30 
KT.  A SMALL AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
OVER THE SE GULF FROM 24N-25N BETWEEN 87W-89W.  BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND 
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA DUE TO THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT.  IN 
THE UPPER LEVELS...WLY FLOW IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE GULF EXCEPT FOR THE SE WHERE CONSIDERABLE 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED.  EXPECT... CONVECTION OVER THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE NEXT 24 
HOURS WITH ELY SURFACE FLOW.    

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS TO HISPANIOLA.  A TROPICAL 
WAVE IS ALONG 87W WITH LITTLE CONVECTION.  ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 8N-16N BETWEEN 80W-84W. 
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  
IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER 
HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N71W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN 
SEA EXCEPT FOR THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 16N AND W OF 80W.  EXPECT 
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER THE NW 
CARIBBEAN SEA.  MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH SURFACE TRADEWINDS WILL 
PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA.  

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N56W 22N72W.  
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 53W-58W.  
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N 
BETWEEN 40W-60W.  A 1015 MB LOW IS W OF PORTUGAL NEAR 40N16W.  
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE RIDGE IS OVER THE THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC WITH AXIS FROM 20N70W TO BEYOND 32N50W.  A LARGE TROUGH 
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC WITH TROUGH AXIS FROM 32N34W TO 15N45W. 
WLY FLOW IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 10N-15N E OF 60W.  

$$
FORMOSA