000
AXNT20 KNHC 050547
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN NOV 05 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... 
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING 
WEST 10 KT.  SHARP INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE IS NOTED WITH 
CONVECTION MOSTLY E OF THE WAVE AXIS.  ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 36W-41W.  

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA 
ALONG 86W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF 
HONDURAS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 80W-84W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM 17N-18N BETWEEN 
85W-87W.  

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N11W 8N20W 14N42W 6N50W 5N55W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N 
BETWEEN 11W-14W...FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 18W-25W...AND FROM 5N-16N 
BETWEEN 27W-37W.  

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1036 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER VIRGINIA IS PRODUCING SURFACE 
RIDGING OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  WINDS ARE ELY AT 20-30 
KT.  A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE 
COAST OF W CUBA FROM 23N-24N BETWEEN 83W-85W.  BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND 
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA DUE TO THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT.  IN 
THE UPPER LEVELS...WLY FLOW IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE GULF EXCEPT FOR THE SE WHERE CONSIDERABLE 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED.  EXPECT... CONVECTION OVER THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE NEXT 24 
HOURS WITH ELY SURFACE FLOW.    

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS TO E CUBA.  A TROPICAL WAVE 
IS ALONG 86W WITH LITTLE CONVECTION.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF 
9N81W.  MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS 
CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N71W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA EXCEPT FOR THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 16N AND W OF 
80W.  EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER 
THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA.  MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH SURFACE 
TRADEWINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA.  

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N58W 22N70W 20N74W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 60W-64W.  
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N 
BETWEEN 40W-60W.  A 1013 MB LOW IS W OF PORTUGAL NEAR 40N16W.  
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE RIDGE IS OVER THE THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC WITH AXIS FROM 20N70W TO BEYOND 32N50W.  A LARGE TROUGH 
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC WITH TROUGH AXIS FROM 32N34W TO 15N45W. 
WLY FLOW IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 10N-15N E OF 60W.  

$$
FORMOSA