000
AXNT20 KNHC 050016 CCA
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT NOV 04 2006

TO UPDATE THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SECTION

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... 
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/41W SOUTH OF 19N 
MOVING WEST 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD THE BASE OF AN 
ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THROUGH 32N35W TO 
23N40W 16N45W TO 10N52W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY 
EAST OF THIS TROUGH...ALONG 10N34W 15N32W 22N26W TO THE CANARY 
ISLANDS AND NORTHERN MOROCCO. THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ON TOP OF THIS WAVE IS CUTTING ACROSS THE WAVE. ISOLATED 
MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 7N TO 16N BETWEEN 39W AND 47W. WIDELY 
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE...FROM 4N TO 15N
BETWEEN 27W AND 40W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND 
OTHER POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO 30N 
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 47W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/85W SOUTH OF 17N...CUTTING RIGHT 
THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA FROM HONDURAS TO COSTA RICA...MOVING 
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER 
IS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BETWEEN 
70W AND 71W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE 
CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS EVERYWHERE.
A FEW AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED. THE 
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 21N77W 
18N82W 15N88W IS CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO 
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO 
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE FROM THE NICARAGUA COAST 
NEAR 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W. STRONG SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS IN PANAMA BETWEEN 80W AND 82W PROBABLY ARE
MORE RELATED TO THE ITCZ THAN TO THIS TROPICAL WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...
8N11W 6N17W 8N30W 10N38W 9N42W 5N48W 4N54W. WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 
FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 19W AND 24W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS 
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 26W AND 
50W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW GOES FROM INTERIOR MEXICO 
STRAIGHT ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND 
FLORIDA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. SOME POST-COLD FRONT
MOISTURE IS SOUTH OF 26N EAST OF 90W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN 
THIS AREA. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA.
20 TO 30 KT WINDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THE GULF WATERS FROM
90W EASTWARD...IN THE AREA OF THE STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT.
THE SURFACE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD EARLY IN THE 
UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING THE WINDS TO SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE CUTS THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA FROM HONDURAS TO 
COSTA RICA. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS 
ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BETWEEN
70W AND 71W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE 
CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS EVERYWHERE.
A FEW AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED. THE 
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 21N77W 
18N82W 15N88W IS CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO 
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO 
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE FROM THE NICARAGUA COAST 
NEAR 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W. STRONG SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS IN PANAMA BETWEEN 80W AND 82W PROBABLY ARE
MORE RELATED TO THE ITCZ. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GOES FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE 
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BETWEEN 70W AND 71W TO 26N66W BEYOND 32N57W. 
THE NEXT BIG FEATURE IS THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH 
32N35W TO 23N40W 16N45W TO 10N52W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS TROUGH FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 
40W AND 60W...FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W...AND FROM 20N 
TO 25N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W...AND NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 40W AND 
46W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THIS TROUGH...
ALONG 10N34W 15N32W 22N26W TO THE CANARY ISLANDS AND NORTHERN 
MOROCCO.

$$
MT