000 AXNT20 KNHC 041736 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SAT NOV 04 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. BROAD LOW TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WAVE AXIS IS ANALYZED NEAR THE WRN EDGE OF THE THICK CLOUDS AS STRONG W-SWLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS...ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHARP TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL/EASTERN ATLC...IS SHEARING MUCH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION N OF 13N AND SPREADING DEBRIS HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WELL TO THE NE OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-13N BETWEEN 28W-42W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN ALONG 84W S OF 17N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO BE CHALLENGING TO LOCATE AS LITTLE...IF ANY...SIGNATURE IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY OR AVAILABLE SFC DATA. THEREFORE...THE POSITION IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 8N30W 10N39W 9N42W 4N52W. BESIDES FOR THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE IS WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS E OF 21W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... STRONG SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY CONTROLS THE WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF PRODUCING FAIR AND QUITE WINDY CONDITIONS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE IN THE E GULF WHERE SEVERAL SHIPS/BUOYS ARE REPORTING NE TO E WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KT. THESE WINDS ARE PRODUCING SEAS TO 11 FT. FOR DETAILS REFER TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...MIAOFFNT4. THERE IS STILL SOME POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE S OF 25N E OF 87W ASSOCIATED WITH MOIST SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THE MOST ORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. IN THE FAR WRN GULF...A WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENT LINE ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO...ANALYZED AS A TROUGH ON THE MAP...IS TRIGGERING A FEW SHOWERS NEAR COASTAL MEXICO AND THE SW BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE STRONG SFC RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EWARD WHICH WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO SUBSIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN W OF A LINE FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO WRN HONDURAS. THIS MOISTURE HAS SIGNIFICANTLY THINNED OUT SINCE YESTERDAY AS THE SFC LOW THAT WAS NEAR BELIZE DISSIPATED AND THE COLD FRONT HAS LIFTED N OF THE AREA...HOWEVER A SHEAR AXIS STILL APPEARS EVIDENT. THE REMNANT MOISTURE IS NOW MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WHICH IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ IN THE EPAC ACROSS THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOST ORGANIZED IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS QUIET WITH PLENTY OF DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA...ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR 16N76W... SUPPRESSING SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY. IN FACT...THE ONLY AREA OF CONVECTION EVIDENT IN IR IMAGERY IS 250 NM SW OF JAMAICA WITHIN 30 NM FROM 15N80.5W. TRADE WINDS REMAIN MODERATE WITH TYPICAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS STEERED W BY THE FLOW. STRONGER WINDS...20 TO 25 KT...ARE IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WHERE THE PRES GRAD IS TIGHTER DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRES TO THE N. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE ATLC BASIN. STRONG SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW...BETWEEN A FLATTENING TROUGH OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND A HIGHLY ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS INTO THE ATLC. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 33N61W ALONG 26N67W ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS AND ERN CUBA. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 24N. A PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH AND/OR SOME UPPER DIFFLUENT AIR IS TRIGGERING A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG 64W FROM 21N-26N. THERE IS NOT MUCH CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT...AS POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE ENHANCED BY THE MOIST SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS LINGERING FOR A FEW HUNDRED NM BEHIND IT. MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT IS W OF 77W N OF 27N...SLOWLY PRESSING E. SWIFT NE WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 KT ARE BEHIND THE FRONT PRODUCING HIGH SEAS IN NE SWELL. A STRONGLY ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE ORIGINATING IN THE CARIBBEAN STRETCHES NEWARD ALONG 22N68W 32N52W. THIS PATTERN THEN FOLDS INTO A STRONG SHARP UPPER TROUGH THAT ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE E ATLC. THE UPPER AXIS EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE AZORES AND SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG 26N40W TO ANOTHER UPPER LOW NEAR 21N44W CONTINUING TO 15N57W. VERY DRY STABLE UPPER LEVEL AIR LIES TO THE W OF THE TROUGH AXIS TO 60W. A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE LIES E OF THE AXIS TO NEAR THE COAST OF W AFRICA. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 40W...HOWEVER THE STRONG W-SWLY UPPER WINDS IS SHEARING MUCH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE WAVE. $$ CANGIALOSI