000
AXNT20 KNHC 040602
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT NOV 04 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... 
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 10 TO 15 KT. 
BROAD LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED IN SATELLITE 
IMAGERY.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
ALONG THE WAVE AXIS FROM 5N-15N BETWEEN 32W-42W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN ALONG 82W S OF 18N 
MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE SHOWS LITTLE...IF ANY... 
SIGNATURE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE POSITION IS MAINLY BASED 
ON CONTINUITY.  WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN NEAR THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-11N. 

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 5N20W 8N30W 9N38W 5N52W. 
BESIDES THE CONVECTION OUTLINED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES 
SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE 
COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 13W-15W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 8N-12N 
BETWEEN 14W-17W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-11N BETWEEN 
25W-32W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 
42W-47W.  

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY IS PRODUCING RIDGING OVER 
THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  WINDS ARE 20-25 KT FROM THE NE.  A 
SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 94W-96W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE STRAITS 
OF FLORIDA DUE TO COLD FRONT THAT HAS PUSHED S TO THE CARIBBEAN 
SEA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO 
WITH AXIS ALONG 92W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 
90W.  CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA... THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...S FLORIDA... AND THE STRAITS 
OF FLORIDA.  EXPECT...CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND 
THE SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE REMAINDER 
OF THE GULF SHOULD HAVE MOSTLY FAIR SKIES WITH ELY SURFACE 
FLOW.    

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 23N79W 19N89W.  ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 83W-89W.  A TROPICAL WAVE IS 
ALONG 82W WITH LITTLE CONVECTION.  A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER 
HISPANIOLA FROM 20N71W TO 16N72W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 
30 NM OF THE TROUGH.  MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER COVERS THE REMAINDER 
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL 
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N71W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA EXCEPT FOR THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 16N 
AND W OF 80W.  EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 
HOURS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA.  MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH 
SURFACE TRADEWINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA.  

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N64W 27N70W 23N79W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 64W-68W.  
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N 
BETWEEN 40W-60W.  A 1012 MB LOW IS W OF PORTUGAL NEAR 38N16W.  
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE RIDGE IS OVER THE THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC WITH AXIS FROM 20N70W TO BEYOND 32N55W.  A LARGE TROUGH 
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC WITH TROUGH AXIS FROM 32N34W TO 17N50W. 
WLY FLOW IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 10N-17N E OF 60W.    

$$
FORMOSA