000 AXNT20 KNHC 032348 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST FRI NOV 03 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 10 TO 15 KT. BROAD LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. SWLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS...ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL/EASTERN ATLC...IS SHEARING MUCH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AND STRETCHING HIGH CLOUDINESS WELL TO THE NE OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-13N. A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN ALONG 81W/82W S OF 18N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE SHOWS LITTLE...IF ANY... SIGNATURE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE POSITION IS MAINLY BASED ON CONTINUITY. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-11N. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A VERY STABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT KEEPING ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO A MINIMUM. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 6N24W 9N35W 7N40W 5N52W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION OUTLINED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 25W-35W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER WESTERN AFRICA FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 8N-15W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. DOMINATES THE GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH BRISK NE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT CREATING HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS NOW CLEARED NEARLY THE ENTIRE GULF AND EXTENDS ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE STILL AFFECTING THE SE PORTION OF THE GULF. A STATIONARY FRONT IS LINGERING ALONG THE SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE IN MEXICO WITH LOW CLOUDS STILL BANKED UP AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS. A COASTAL SFC TROUGH LIES ALONG 97W IN THE WRN GULF FROM 19N-25N. AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IS ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE SFC TROUGH OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVEL...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIES ALONG 93W OVER THE SW GULF AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SWLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS UPPER TROUGH ARE ADVECTING ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE W CARIBBEAN INTO CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA PREVIOUSLY NEAR THE COAST OF BELIZE HAS MOVED INLAND AND WEAKENED. AS OF 2100 Z...THE SFC LOW IS NEAR 16N89W. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND HONDURAS AS THIS SYSTEM DRIFTS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE SEEN IN THE NW CARIB INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS LOW AND A COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE E STALLING FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO GULF OF HONDURAS SAT NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS QUIET TONIGHT WITH VERY DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT IN PLACE ON THE S AND E SIDE OF AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED JUST SE OF JAMAICA. A WEAK SFC TROUGH IS ALONG 72W FROM 14N-20N WHICH INCLUDES THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE RELATED TO THIS FEATURE. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS GENERATING A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE ISLANDS AND NE VENEZUELA. 15-20 KT TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE BASIN. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN EXIST ACROSS THE ATLC BASIN. STARTING FROM W TO E...SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN U.S. COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 70W. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N68W THEN CONTINUES SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SFC OBS SHOWS NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED IN THE CARIBBEAN WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NE ALONG 24N64W 32N56W AND BEYOND. SFC RIDGING IS ALSO ESTABLISHED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH SITUATED N OF THE AREA. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE TROPICS FROM 32N34W ALONG 20N46W 16N54W TO THE UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SWLY FLOW...E OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS...IS SIGNIFICANTLY SHEARING THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E ATLC AND SPREADING ITS MOISTURE AND OTHER DEBRIS TROPICAL MOISTURE NEWARD TOWARDS THE CANARY ISLANDS. THE FAR ERN ATLC IS COVERED BY AN UPPER RIDGE WHICH IS CENTERED OVER WRN AFRICA. $$ GR