000 AXNT20 KNHC 031732 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST FRI NOV 03 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 10 TO 15 KT. BROAD LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND QSCAT WINDS. THERE ARE A FEW LOW-LEVEL CLOUD SWIRLS EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD AREA BUT THE WAVE PSN IS PLACED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LARGER CURVATURE. SWLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS...ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL/EASTERN ATLC...IS SHEARING MUCH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AND STRETCHING HIGH CLOUDINESS WELL TO THE NE OF THE WAVE. HIGHLY SHEARED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 240 NM AHEAD OF THE WAVE S OF 13N AND EXTENDS WELL BEHIND THE WAVE S OF 23N BETWEEN 25W AND 36W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN ALONG 81W S OF 18N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE SHOWS LITTLE...IF ANY... SIGNATURE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY OR SFC OBS. IN ADDITION...AN 1126 UTC QSCAT PASS ACROSS THE FEATURE SHOWED STRAIGHT ELY FLOW IN THE REGION. THEREFORE...THE PSN IS BASED ON CONTINUITY OF FORWARD MOTION. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A VERY STABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT KEEPING ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO A MINIMUM. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 5N20W 9N34W 7N40W 5N53W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION OUTLINED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE IS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS E OF 15W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS NOW CLEARED NEARLY THE ENTIRE GULF AND EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC TO THE SRN FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. EVEN THOUGH THE BOUNDARY ITSELF HAS PASSED THRU...POST-FRONTAL SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL EXIST S OF 24N E OF 88W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS LINGERING ALONG THE SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE IN MEXICO WITH LOW CLOUDS STILL BANKED UP AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS BROKEN...IN BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED AND STATIONARY FRONT OVER MEXICO...AS SWIFT NLY WINDS ARE FLOWING THRU THE AREA IN THE WRN GULF AND ACROSS S MEXICO WHICH SPAWNED A GALE EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A COASTAL SFC TROUGH LIES ALONG 97W IN THE WRN GULF FROM 19N-25N. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. ELSEWHERE FAIR AND WINDY WEATHER EXISTS WITH STRONG HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER THE S CENTRAL U.S. TIGHTENING THE PRES GRAD. SFC WINDS ARE 20 TO 30 KT ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE GULF PRODUCING HIGH SEAS. FOR DETAILS ON WINDS AND WAVES REFER TO MIAOFFNT4. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A SLOW MOVING 1009 MB LOW IS NEAR THE COAST OF BELIZE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE CONTINUING IN THE NW CARIB W OF 83W FROM 16N-21N IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS LOW AND S OF A COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. MUCH OF THE STRONGER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DECREASING IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. NONETHELESS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ...BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND HONDURAS AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS WESTWARD. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS QUIET THIS AFTERNOON WITH VERY DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT IN PLACE ON THE S AND E SIDE OF AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED JUST S OF JAMAICA. THE DRIEST AIR ALOFT IS IN THE SW CARIB AND THIS AIR IS IMPINGING ON THE OUTER CIRCULATION OF THE LOW PRES SYSTEM NEAR BELIZE. A WEAK SFC TROUGH IS ALONG 73W FROM 14N-20N WHICH INCLUDES THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS TURNING ABOUT THIS AXIS. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE DRY ENVIRONMENT ABOVE ONLY ISOLATED SHALLOW SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN EXIST ACROSS THE ATLC BASIN. STARTING FROM W TO E...SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN U.S. COVERS THE WRN-MOST ATLC W OF 70W. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 32N67W 27N73W ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE SRN FLORIDA STRAITS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THERE IS NOT MUCH CLEARING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WITH POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE LINGERING FOR ABOUT 180 NM W OF THE FRONT. SFC OBS AND QSCAT SHOWS NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT...THIS IS PICKING UP SEAS ABOVE 8 FT. FOR MORE DETAILS REFER TO MIAOFFNT3. A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED IN THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS TITLED TO THE NE ALONG 21N69W 28N60W 32N56W. SFC RIDGING IS ALSO ESTABLISHED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA NEAR 41N42W. THE MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW THEN FOLDS INTO A LARGE ELONGATED TROUGH. THE HIGHEST AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER CYCLONE NEAR THE AZORES...BUT PRONOUNCED TROUGHING EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE TROPICS ALONG 32N34 26N41W 15N59W. SWLY FLOW...E OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS...IS SIGNIFICANTLY SHEARING THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E ATLC AND SPREADING ITS MOISTURE AND OTHER DEBRIS TROPICAL MOISTURE NEWARD TOWARDS THE CANARY ISLANDS. THE FAR ERN ATLC IS COVERED BY AN UPPER RIDGE WHICH IS CENTERED OVER WRN AFRICA. $$ CANGIALOSI