000 AXNT20 KNHC 030628 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST FRI NOV 03 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A TROPICAL WAVE IS NOW INLAND ALONG 90W/91W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10 KT. THIS WAVE RUNS FROM NORTHWESTERN GUATEMALA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS IS THE SAME WAVE THAT HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA 1009 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WHICH NOW IS ABOUT 25 TO 30 NM EAST OF THE EAST CENTRAL BELIZE COAST. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 84W AND 89W...FROM THE WATERS JUST NORTH OF EASTERN HONDURAS TO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO EAST CENTRAL COASTAL BELIZE. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ALSO COVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND CUBA NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF 22N77W 19N82W 19N87W. TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND PROXIMITY TO LAND. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE... GUATEMALA...AND HONDURAS AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS WESTWARD. THESE RAINS MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES... ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W/34W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 10 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 30W AND 33W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND OTHER POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 11N39W 16N33W...AND 18N29W 23N26W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM 22N31W TO 13N40W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS MOVING FROM BRAZIL AND THE GUYANAS INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AND EVENTUALLY PASSING ON TOP OF THIS TROUGH AND THE AREA OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W ARE BEING PUSHED EASTWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD BY THIS FLOW. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W/78W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE BUT IT APPEARS THAT THERE IS A NARROW ZONE OF SLIGHT CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE LOWER CLOUD FIELD BETWEEN JAMAICA AND PANAMA. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS PRESENT WITH THIS WAVE. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD. IT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 81W. AN ELONGATING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTH CENTRAL COLOMBIA RIGHT NOW. THIS AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW IS ORIENTED ON AN EAST-WEST AXIS...FROM NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA TO NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL COLOMBIA. ...THE ITCZ... 9N13W 9N23W 10N31W 10N37W 7N46W 5N52W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE AFRICA COAST FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 9W AND 11W...AND FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 31W AND 33W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 22W AND 32W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 15W AND 40W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 45W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND CENTRAL ALABAMA INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS NOW RUNS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH 32N73W TO SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR 26N80W TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 23N90W TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN 95W AND 97W. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...SOUTH OF 25N WEST OF 93W. ALL THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT AND WHATEVER MAY BE CAUGHT UP IN THE WHOLE 90W/91W TROPICAL WAVE AND 1009 MB SURFACE LOW SCENARIO OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS SOUTHEAST OF 27N83W 24N86W 22N88W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS WITHIN 120 TO 180 NM EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE COLD FRONT FROM WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N TO 30N. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 29N TO 32N BETWEEN 68W AND 72W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE ELSEWHERE WEST OF 30N69W 25N69W 21N75W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE AREA...NOW EAST OF 81W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE WESTERN SECTION OF THE AREA WITH A RIDGE. THE RIDGE STARTS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 18N75W IN BETWEEN JAMAICA AND HAITI...AND GOES INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEYOND 26N72W. THE 86W/87W TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO BE THE WEATHER FEATURE. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION AT THE TOP OF THIS BULLETIN FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ABOUT THIS TROPICAL WAVE AND THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW GOES WITH A RIDGE...WHICH STARTS OUT AT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN BETWEEN JAMAICA AND HAITI...CONTINUES INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 26N72W AND GOES BEYOND 32N64W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 45W AND 80W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N33W TO 27N44W TO 18N56W. THE SOUTHERN END OF A SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT REACHES 30N35W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 48W AND 74W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS EAST OF THE 22N31W 13N40W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM 22N28W TO 28N21W AND TO A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 35N19W. $$ MT