000 AXNT20 KNHC 030002 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST THU NOV 02 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST NEAR 10 KT. UPPER SW FLOW/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING NE OVER THE AREA ARE MASKING THE SIGNAL A BIT. HOWEVER...UNDERNEATH THE HIGH CLOUDS LIES AN INVERTED V PATTERN WITH CYCLONIC TURNING NOTED ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS NOTED FROM 1N-10N BETWEEN 25W-35W...AND FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 30W-34W. A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A NARROW ZONE OF SLIGHT CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE LOWER CLOUD FIELD BETWEEN JAMAICA AND PANAMA. NONETHELESS...THERE IS NO DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE...WITH EXTENSIVE DRY/STABLE AIR SURROUNDING THE ADJACENT CARIBBEAN WATERS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS NOW INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND EXTENDS S THROUGH EL SALVADOR INTO THE EPAC. IT APPEARS AS IF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE HAS SPLIT OFF FROM THE SLOW MOVING LOW IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS...WITH LOWER LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING NOTED IN THE EPAC WATERS FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 89W-93W. THE 1800 AND 2100 UTC MAPS REFLECT THIS. THE 1009 MB SURFACE LOW REMAINS IN THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN JUST OFF THE COAST OF BELIZE NEAR 17N88W. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS. TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND PROXIMITY TO LAND. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND HONDURAS AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS WESTWARD. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 9N30W 9N35W 5N53W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION MENTIONED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 33W...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 25W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY NOTED FROM 5N-13N BETWEEN 45W-60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH THE GULF FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO JUST S OF TAMPICO MEXICO. A SFC TROUGH PERSISTS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY FROM ERN CUBA AND FAR SE GULF...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND INTO THE SW ATLC OCEAN. THE LAST FEW VISIBLE PICTURES THIS EVENING SHOWED CLEAR LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AND IS CONTINUING TO SPARK SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IN THE SE GULF AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 80W-86W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ALSO NOTED OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM 18N-26N BETWEEN 94W-98W...ALSO A REGION OF WEAK UPPER DIFFLUENCE. UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SSW THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY CONTINUES TO PRODUCE UPPER W/SW FLOW OVER THE GULF...STRETCHING THE HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE CONVECTION TO THE E/NE. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE NW/N GULF FROM ITS 1033 MB CENTER IN NE OKLAHOMA. THE STRONG HIGH N OF THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY TAKE OVER THE WEATHER BEHIND THE FRONT AS WE MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING RISING NE WINDS AND WIND WAVES THROUGH THE GULF. SEE MIAOFFNT4 FOR DETAILS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE WAVE/LOW IN THE FAR NW PORTION DOMINATES THE WEATHER IN THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING AS DESCRIBED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE UPPER FLOW AROUND THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING...WITH ITS CENTER NEAR SW JAMAICA. EXTENSIVE DRY/STABLE MID TO UPPER AIR IS OVER THE EAST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN E OF 81W...WHICH IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE SOME WEAK UPPER TROUGHING EXTENDING THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES...BUT THIS FEATURE IS NOT GENERATING MUCH SHOWER OR TSTM ACTIVITY WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...10-20 KT TRADES DOMINATE E OF 80W ON THE SW PORTION OF ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE INTO YUCATAN CHANNEL EARLY FRI AND STALL THROUGH EARLY SAT. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SFC TROUGH AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...SE FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WRN ATLC WATERS ALONG 24N81W 32N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH THIS FEATURE LIE FROM 22N-32N BETWEEN 71W-81W. STRONG REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE SW N ATLC THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT...ALLOWING GUSTY NE WINDS AND RAPIDLY BUILDING NE WIND WAVES TO DEVELOP. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES AND MIAOFFNT3 FOR MORE DETAILS. AN UPPER RIDGE ALSO DOMINATES THE W ATLC WATERS W OF 45W. STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLC...WITH A 1030 MB CENTER NEAR 37N47W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLC WATERS ALONG 40W S TO 14N. STRONG UPPER SW FLOW ON THE SE OF THIS TROUGH IS SHEARING THE CONVECTION OVER THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 33W. UPPER SW/W FLOW BETWEEN THIS UPPER TROUGH AND UPPER RIDGING OVER W AFRICA DOMINATES THE ERN ATLC...ALONG WITH A FAIRLY WEAK SFC PRESSURE PATTERN S OF THE COMPLEX LOW/FRONTAL SYSTEM OFF OF SW PORTUGAL. $$ WILLIS