000 AXNT20 KNHC 021815 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST THU NOV 02 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W/32W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM A 19N37W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 15N39W 12N43W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS MOVING FROM BRAZIL AND THE GUYANAS INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND EVENTUALLY PASSING ON TOP OF THIS TROUGH AND THE AREA OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS FROM 10N TO 28N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W ARE BEING PUSHED EASTWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD BY THIS FLOW. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N TO 22N BETWEEN 27W AND 32W. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 33W AND 39W. A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE DOES NOT SHOW UP WELL AT ALL IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD...COVERING THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 81W. AN ELONGATING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA RIGHT NOW. THIS AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW IS ORIENTED ON AN EAST-WEST AXIS...FROM NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA TO NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA. A TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 86W/87W SOUTH OF 24N. WE HAVE NOT BEEN MOVING THIS WAVE MUCH DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS. IT HAS BECOME TIED TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...NOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 17N. OUR NEXT SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS WILL SHOW THAT THE WAVE HAS SEPARATED FROM THE LOW CENTER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS/BELIZE/EASTERN GUATEMALA TO WESTERN CUBA. MOISTURE FROM MANY LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE GOES FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...TO THE BAHAMAS. TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND EVEN THOUGH THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND NORTHERN HONDURAS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD AND INLAND. ...THE ITCZ... 9N12W 8N20W 10N28W 10N34W 8N40W 5N54W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 10W AND 20W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 36W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 8N TO 14N BETWEEN 44W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS NOW RUNS FROM SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS TO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AT THE MEXICO BORDER. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 96W AND 98W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF 23N WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN THE MIDDLE OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH/FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS ON TOP OF THE 86W/87W WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE AND 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTHEAST OF 27N83W 25N87W 23N90W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS NORTHEAST OF THE 86W/87W TROPICAL WAVE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH 31N77W 26N80W TO THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N82W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 31N72W 28N76W 25N80W 24N83W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE AREA...NOW EAST OF 81W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE WESTERN SECTION OF THE AREA WITH A RIDGE. THE RIDGE STARTS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 18N75W IN BETWEEN JAMAICA AND HAITI...AND GOES INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEYOND 26N72W. THE 86W/87W TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO BE THE WEATHER FEATURE. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION AT THE TOP OF THIS BULLETIN FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ABOUT THIS TROPICAL WAVE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW GOES WITH A RIDGE...WHICH STARTS OUT AT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN BETWEEN JAMAICA AND HAITI...CONTINUES INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 26N72W AND GOES BEYOND 32N64W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 45W AND 80W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N37W TO 26N41W TO 17N49W. THE SOUTHERN END OF A SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT REACHES 30N36W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 48W AND 74W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS EAST OF THE 19N37W 12N43W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N13W TO 28N18W ACROSS PARTS OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. THIS FRONT IS PART OF THE NOW NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CENTER...NOW WEST OF PORTUGAL. $$ MT