000 AXNT20 KNHC 011812 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST WED NOV 01 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS PUSHING ITS WAY WESTWARD AND SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND NOW IS EAST OF 76W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS MOVING FROM BRAZIL INTO SOUTHERN VENEZUELA AND NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS GUYANA...SURINAME... AND FRENCH GUIANA. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W/86W SOUTH OF 24N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 18N. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO 21N BETWEEN 86W AND 88W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE BAHAMAS SOUTH OF 25N WEST OF 75W...AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF 78W. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR OVER SECTIONS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...HONDURAS...AND NICARAGUA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND PRECIPITATION. ...THE ITCZ... 9N12W 8N20W 8N30W 8N36W 5N48W 5N54W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 18N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W...FROM 8N TO 15N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...TO THE BAHAMAS BEYOND 26N77W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS AND TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. MULTILAYERED MOISTURE IS SOUTH OF THE LINE 26N80W 24N86W 22N88W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WEST TEXAS INTO INTERIOR NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS REACHED THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE TEXAS COAST INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 90W AND 92W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NORTHWEST OF THE 26N80W 22N88W LINE. THIS FRONT IS THE NEXT ONE TO BE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND TO FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR HAS SETTLED INTO THE AREA EAST OF 76W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE WESTERN SECTION OF THE AREA WITH A RIDGE. THE RIDGE STARTS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 17N81W ABOUT 155 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA. THE RIDGE CONTINUES FROM 17N81W INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AROUND THE 85W/86W TROPICAL WAVE AND THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 18N. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW GOES WITH A RIDGE...WHICH RUNS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W TO 28N73W BEYOND 34N64W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 35N36W TO 31N38W TO 27N42W TO 25N51W TO 24N62W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH IS PASSING THROUGH 32N40W TO 26N50W TO 24N60W. A STATIONARY FRONT GOES FROM 24N60W TO 24N68W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 TO 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE PASSING THROUGH 31N39W TO 29N42W 27N48W 25N50W 24N55W 23N64W 24N68W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM 20N43W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 17N43W TO 13N46W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY TO THE EAST OF THIS TROUGH FROM 12N41W TO 22N38W TO 29N31W. A DEEP LAYER EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 34N20W. A TROUGH RUNS FROM THIS 34N20W CENTER TO 30N20W TO THE MOROCCO COAST NEAR 25N15W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 35N21W. A COLD FRONT COMES OUT OF THIS LOW CENTER...NORTH OF 31N...THROUGH 31N16W TO 26N20W 19N26W. A SURFACE TROUGH GOES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 32N18W 28N23W TO 26N34W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE IN A BIG CLOUD SHIELD FROM 23N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 10W AND 18W. $$ MT