000
AXNT20 KNHC 010543
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED NOV 1 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... 
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 
KT. THIS LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE HAS VERY LITTLE SATELLITE SIGNATURE 
AND NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.  

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W SOUTH OF 23N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 
KT. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 
20N. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY..OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW 
TO OCCUR DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 78W-84W. THE 
LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  
 
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N14W 8N30W 7N45W 5N52W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W AFRICA 
FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 10W-14W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 18W-24W...AND FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 24W-28W.   

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL TEXAS.  SURFACE HIGH 
PRESSURE RIDGING COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH RIDGE AXIS 
EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.   
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS COVER THE 
YUCATAN CHANNEL...SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS OVER A SMALL AREA FROM 
24N-26N BETWEEN 87W-90W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHORT WAVE 
TROUGH IS ALONG 91W/92W MOVING E.  RIDGING IS OVER THE E GULF OF 
MEXICO E OF 90W AND THE STATE OF FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE COVERS MOST OF THE GULF. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF 
NW GULF COAST TODAY AND EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO NE MEXICO 
THU. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. 

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS THE TROPICAL 
WAVE LOCATED ALONG 84W. SEE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION. PATCHES OF 
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE MOVING FROM THE 
TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN UNDER AN E TO 
NE WIND FLOW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER 
JAMAICA NEAR 17N77W EXTENDING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL-W 
CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. SOUTHEAST OF THE RIDGE 
THERE IS AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS WWD ACROSS THE WINDWARD 
ISLANDS AND NORTHERN VENEZUELA. DRY AIR ALOFT RESULTING IN 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN EAST 
OF 72W...INCLUDING DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PUERTO RICO AND THE 
LESSER ANTILLES AS WELL AS NORTHERN VENEZUELA. ABUNDANT UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE IS SOUTH OF THIS TROUGH. 15-20 KT TRADE WINDS ARE 
BLOWING ACROSS THE BASIN.  

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LONG RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER 
JAMAICA TO THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N72W. AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERS 
THE AREA NEAR 31N58W. THE ATTENDANT FRONTAL SYSTEM LIES ALONG 
31N45W 25N55W 24N65W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  A 
1024 MB HIGH IS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE RIDGE COVERING MOST OF 
THE W-CENTRAL ATLC. AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC 
N OF 20N BETWEEN 33W-43W WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS OVER 
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 34N22W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1004 MB OCCLUDED 
LOW IS NEAR 32N24W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE 
MADEIRA/CANARY ISLANDS. IN THE DEEP TROPICS...A LARGE ELONGATED 
UPPER LOW IS NEAR 16N24W. STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS SE OF THE LOW 
ARE ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE NE. DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS 
FROM 10N-21N BETWEEN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND 45W.   
 
$$
GR