000 AXNT20 KNHC 310552 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST TUE OCT 31 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE COUPLED WITH THE ITCZ IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN VENEZUELA. ELSEWHERE...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO ITS N. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE SOUTH AND VERY CLOSE TO JAMAICA AND E CUBA FROM 13N-21N BETWEEN 76W-81W. THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND ANY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 87W S OF 16N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. A SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 17N86W. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS DIMINISHED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND CENTRAL HONDURAS. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N14W 9N30W 8N40W 4N50W 5N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-11N WEST OF 18W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 25W-31W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND A VERY DRY/STABLE ATMOSPHERE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVER MEXICO MOVING EWD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE STILL VISIBLE OVER THE AREA. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD. THIS IS PRODUCING ELY LIGHT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND STRONGER SLY FLOW OF 15-20 KT OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE GULF. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF NW GULF COAST EARLY WED. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THREE TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN UNDER AN ELY SURFACE FLOW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EXISTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN WEST OF 72W. AN UPPER HIGH REMAINS OVER HISPANIOLA WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS IS SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER/TSTMS ACTIVITY RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR JAMAICA. AN INVERTED TROUGH LIES ALONG 78W SOUTH OF 16N. PLENTY OF DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN EAST OF 72W...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. 15-20 TRADE WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE BASIN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS JUST NORTH OF THE COLOMBIA COAST. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN DOMINATES THE ATLC. STRONG SWLY WINDS AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH LOCATED JUST E OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ARE ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE W CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS INTO THE W ATLC BEYOND 31N60W. THE ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ALONG 31N53W 26N60W 25N72W. ON THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE BACK NORTH AND MAY AFFECT FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE GFS IS SHOWING A FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHING SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT. A 1022 MB HIGH IS OFF THE N CAROLINA COAST NEAR 34N72W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 31N26W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1003 MB LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N28W. THIS LOW IS COLD-CORE AT THE MOMENT. AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS E TO 31N22W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES S ALONG 24N26W 20N40W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 20N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE FRONT FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN 17W-23W. IN THE DEEP TROPICS A LARGE ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS NEAR 12N48W. DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS FROM 10N-25N BETWEEN 47W-62W. $$ GR