000 AXNT20 KNHC 300548 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST MON OCT 30 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS A LOW AMPLITUDE FEATURE AND IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. THE WAVE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER SURINAME AND GUYANA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 56W-62W TO INCLUDE TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 75W SOUTH OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY COVERS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE AREA. THIS WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH A COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 74W-79W TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF HAITI...EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W S OF 17N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. SOME LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUD TURNING IS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGES. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS PRODUCING PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 80W-84W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 9N30W 7N40W 6N50W 6N56W. OTHER THAN THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER W AFRICA FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 10W-15W AND FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 16W-22W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO FOUND WITHIN 100 NM NORTH OF THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 26W-31W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 31N86W 20N97W. SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF BETWEEN 85W-92W. FAIR SKIES PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF GIVING THE AREA MOSTLY WLY FLOW AND DRY AIR. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALLOWING THE SLY RETURN FLOW TO ESTABLISH OVER THE WESTERN GULF TODAY. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MAIN FEATURE IS THE COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN CUBA AND THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 75W AND THEIR INTERACTION IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE TWO FEATURES ARE PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WEST CARIBBEAN. THE WAVE IS ALSO GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER WESTERN VENEZUELA AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SWLY FLOW IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS SUPPORTING THE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. 15-20 KT TRADE WINDS WILL BLOW ACROSS THE BASIN EAST OF 75W. N TO NE WINDS ARE OBSERVED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND WESTERN CUBA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N65W...THEN CONTINUES SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN AROUND 100 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM 20N-27W. A 1023 MB IS BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR 31N75W COVERING THE W ATLC AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 31N27W 24N35W 23N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM 26N-30N. IN BETWEEN THESE FRONTAL SYSTEMS THERE IS A SURFACE RIDGE THAT REACHES THE NE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 26N AND W OF 75W. AN UPPER HIGH OVER HISPANIOLA EXTENDS A RIDGE BETWEEN 60W-75W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 25N55W. AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N E OF 45W WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 32N30W. SWLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH ARE ADVECTING ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE E ATLC E OF 35W AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. $$ GR