000 AXNT20 KNHC 291134 AAA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SUN OCT 29 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W S OF 15N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS RATHER LOW AMPLITUDE WITH LITTLE CURVATURE NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. PLACEMENT IS BASED ON CONTINUITY. DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE REMAINS MINIMAL. TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH THE EAST TO CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 69W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS WELL DEFINED WITH CLEAR CYCLONIC CURVATURE NOTED IN THE LOW TO MID CLOUD FIELD...BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND SOUTH AMERICA. SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE INCREASED A BIT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOW NOTED FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 68W-74W. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W S OF 18N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS BECOME DIFFICULT TO LOCATE OVERNIGHT AND IS NEARING THE COLD FRONT THAT RECENTLY ENTERED THE NW CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS N OF 13N. TO THE SOUTH OF 13N...A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN IN THE SW CARIBBEAN OFF THE COAST OF PANAMA...LIKELY ENHANCED BY THE ITCZ. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 8N30W 8N44W 9N55W TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST NEAR 9N61W. SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION SEEN WITHIN 200NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 17W-45W. SCATTERED MODERATE ALSO SEEN OFF THE NE SOUTH AMERICA COAST FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 55W-61W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM MEXICO AND SRN TEXAS HAS SUCCESSFULLY BUILT INTO THE GULF BEHIND OUR RECENT COLD FRONT PASSAGE...PRODUCING 10-15 KT NW/N FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE NRN GULF IS EXPERIENCING CLEAR SKIES WITH OFFSHORE FLOW...WHILE SCATTERED TO BROKEN COOL AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS REMAIN VISIBLE S OF 27N. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO ADVECT VERY DRY MID TO UPPER AIR E ACROSS THE GULF IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE POSTFRONTAL WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH TONIGHT AND GAIN MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... FRONTAL BOUNDARY...NOW STATIONARY...CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH THE 29/0900 UTC PLACEMENT BETWEEN CENTRAL CUBA AND BELIZE. AN ASSOCIATED CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS HOVERING OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THIS IS ALSO BEING SUPPORTED BY UPPER DIFFLUENT AIR...BETWEEN THE PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGHING EXTENDING S FROM THE EAST COAST AND UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING THROUGH HONDURAS FROM ITS CENTER JUST OFFSHORE SALSA BRAVA COSTA RICA. A SMALL SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS ALSO ALIGNED FROM SE TO NW THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN...THAT HAS ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ON THE PVA SIDE OF THE AXIS JUST S OF JAMAICA. THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS AREA ALSO LIKELY ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY. AN UPPER HIGH IS NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS THAT IS AFFECTING THE NRN CARIBBEAN. UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND AN UPPER LOW JUST S OF THE ABC ISLANDS IS HELPING TO SUPPORT THE CONVECTION NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 69W. THE SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MONDAY WHILE THE FRONT OVER THE NW PORTION GRADUALLY BECOMES DIFFUSE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AS OF 29/0900 UTC A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS TO NEAR 32N69W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT NOW NOTED FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 68W-74W...WHICH SEEMS TO BE ALIGNED WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH THAT HAS REESTABLISHED ITSELF OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE FRONT WITH A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 33N50W IS PRODUCING GUSTY SW FLOW E OF THE FRONT TO 25 KT...THOUGH THE PREFRONTAL GALE HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. MUCH STRONGER GRADIENT NOTICED WELL N OF THE AREA OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGHING EXTENDING S THROUGH THE EAST COAST...THAT IS ADVECTING VERY DRY MID TO UPPER AIR OFF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH FLORIDA. A WELL DEFINED UPPER HIGH IS ABOUT 400NM NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 24N58W...THAT HAS ABUNDANT DRY AIR ROTATING AROUND IT. E OF THIS UPPER HIGH LIES AN UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS ITS OLD ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG 32N33W 27N40W 25N51W. THERE IS STILL A LINE OF LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS OLD BOUNDARY...BUT THE DRY STABLE ENVIRONMENT SURROUNDING IT IS PREVENTING DEEP CONVECTION. MUCH OF THE E ATLC N OF 15N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W ALSO IN A DRY/STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. A BROAD UPPER LOW IS SPINNING JUST N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR THE WRN CANARIES AT 28N19W. AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING WSW THROUGH THE DEEP TROPICS IS SHEARING THE HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE ITCZ CONVECTION TO THE E/NE. $$ WILLIS