000 AXNT20 KNHC 281745 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT OCT 28 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W S OF 14N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS RATHER LOW AMPLITUDE WITH LITTLE CURVATURE NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MAINLY WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 41W-49W. A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. ITS AXIS LIES ALONG 64W. THE SURFACE LOW THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS IS NOT CURRENTLY IDENTIFIABLE. THIS WAVE IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTEND FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS TO NEAR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED THIS MORNING AND ANY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND FROM 12-15N BETWEEN 62W-66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W S OF 18N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE SHOWS AN INVERTED-V PATTERN ON VIS SAT IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE MAINLY AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS BEEN ENHANCING BY AN UPPER LOW LOCATED BETWEEN JAMAICA AND CABO GRACIAS A DIOS IN NICARAGUA. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 7N25W 8N42W 8N50W 10N60W. BESIDES FOR THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE... SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN AROUND 150NM NORTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 20W-35W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 100NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 25W-28W AND BETWEEN 35W-43W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A STRONG COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SSW OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND WESTERN GULF... CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF. AS OF 28/1500 UTC...THE FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N78W THEN CONTINUES SW ALONG SOUTH FLORIDA JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE OCKEECHOBEE INTO THE SE GULF AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL/PENINSULA. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS...WESTERN CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO SEEN OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND SOUTH MEXICO. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT COVERING MOST OF THE GULF. STRONG NW/N WINDS OF 20-30 KT ARE COMMON BEHIND THE FRONT BUT PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN FROM THE NW WITH A 1030 MB CENTER OVER NE MEXICO. THIS HIGH SHOULD DOMINATE THE ENTIRE GULF LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE OF THE AREA AND EXTEND FROM CENTRAL BAHAMAS/CUBA TO S BELIZE TONIGHT. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND RAPIDLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE SE GULF IS AFFECTING WESTERN CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE ITCZ AXIS. A COUPLE OF TROPICAL WAVE ARE MOVING WWD ACROSS THE BASIN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER HIGH COVERS FROM EASTERN CUBA TO PUERTO RICO. AN INVERTED TROUGH LIES OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. A WEAK UPPER LOW IS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND CABO GRACIAS A DIOS IN NICARAGUA. MUCH OF THE SRN CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 67W-75W IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER WITH DRY MID TO UPPER AIR IN PLACE. 15-20 KT NLY WIND FLOW WILL INVADE THE NW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN REMAINS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE ATLC. THE UPPER HIGH THAT IS OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES EXTENDS A RIDGE NWD ALONG 65/66W COVERING MOST OF THE W/CENTRAL ATLC. AN UPPER TROUGH LIES ALONG 40W/41W WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 17N40W. A NARROW RIDGE IS BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND A STRONG UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE CANARY/MADEIRA ISLANDS. AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS ENTERING THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA AND EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA...THE SE GULF AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IN THE NW PORTION OF THE ATLC FOR THE REST OF TODAY. A BAND OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC WATERS ALONG 32N42W 24N53W 22N62W. A PRETTY WELL DEFINED BAND OF MAINLY LOW/MID CLOUDS IS STILL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. A 1023MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR 34N58W IS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE HIGH DOMINATES THE E ATLC. IN THE DEEP TROPICS...UPPER HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED JUST E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. $$ GR