000 AXNT20 KNHC 271823 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W SOUTH OF 12N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN ITCZ-RELATED PRECIPITATION FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN 33W AND 40W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N. A CLUSTER OF STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS WITHIN A 30 TO 45 NM RADIUS OF 13N58W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N TO 17N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W SOUTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MOVING WEST 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 69W AND 75W. ...THE ITCZ... 11N15W 8N26W 7N35W 6N40W 8N50W 10N54W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN THE COAST OF AFRICA AND 17W...FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 22W AND 40W...AND FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 43W AND 54W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA...THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH RUNS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE CURRENT GULF WATERS COLD FRONT. A STRONG DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NOW IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI FROM WEST TO EAST. IT IS DRAGGING A TROUGH TO ITS SOUTHWEST ACROSS TEXAS. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH IS BEING SUPPORTED BY THIS DEEP LAYER TROUGH GOES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WATERS TO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST NEAR 26N97W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THROUGH 31N86W TO 28N90W TO 26N94W IN THE WESTERN GULF WATERS TO 23N97W JUST OFF THE MEXICO COAST. THE FRONT IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WATERS IS THE FRONT WHICH WE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO WATERS DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS OR SO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 17N81W. A COLD FRONT GOES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH 22N60W TO 20N70W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 20N70W TO THE NORTHERN COASTAL AREAS OF JAMAICA TO 19N80W...TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND INTO A PART OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 23N88W. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER GOES FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 78W AND 84W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA SOUTH OF 14N WEST OF 72W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT/TROUGH BOUNDARY. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY TO THE EAST OF A DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NOW MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS RIDGE REACHES 70W NORTH OF 28N. DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND A WESTERN-TO- CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH...THROUGH 32N54W TO 27N58W TO 22N66W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT WHICH PASSES THROUGH 32N43W TO 27N50W TO 22N60W TO 20N70W. A SURFACE RIDGE GOES FROM 22N49W TO 25N37W BEYOND A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 31N28W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THROUGH 32N42W 27N51W 22N60W 19N67W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 39N23W 29N30W TO 22N34W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 15N36W JUST NORTH OF THE 38W TROPICAL WAVE. $$ MT