000 AXNT20 KNHC 271049 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37 S OF 13N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. SOME CYCLONIC TURNING IS APPARENT IN THE LOW TO MID CLOUD FIELD...THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING AROUND THE UPPER LOW JUST TO THE N OF THE WAVE ARE MASKING THE SIGNAL A BIT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 35W-40W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT 260 NM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS ALONG 54W/55W S OF 20N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. A 1009 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N. MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 52W-59N...THOUGH THE SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POORLY ORGANIZED AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ANTICIPATED. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W S OF 19N...0R BETWEEN ERN HISPANIOLA AND VENEZUELA...MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS NOT AS EASY TO TRACK AS IT ONCE WAS...THOUGH A NARROW ZONE OF CYCLONIC TURNING NOTED ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS IN SHORTWAVE IR IMAGERY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT CURACAO ALSO DEPICTED THE WAVE PASSAGE FAIRLY WELL. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT JUST SE OF THE STRONG ATLC FRONTAL BOUNDARY...PRODUCING ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 11N15W 7N25W 7N40W 11N52W TO NEAR TRINIDAD NEAR 10N61W. A NARROW BAND OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 20W-33W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ALSO SEEN FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 41W-53W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... DEEP SLY FLOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NE OF THE AREA INTERACTING WITH THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. MANY BUOYS/SHIPS REPORTING 15-25 KT S/SE FLOW...SOME WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STATION 42362 REPORTED 41KT AT 0830 UTC BUT THAT ANEMOMETER IS 120 METERS HIGH. AT 0840 UTC...BUOY 42035 JUST E OF GALVESTON SHOWED A NW WIND SHIFT INDICATING THE COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE NW GULF. TEXAS AND LOUISIANA MOSAIC RADAR DATA ALSO SHOWS A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVING INTO THE NW GULF WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE ONLY OTHER PRECIP SEEN IN THE GULF ARE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS LINGERING NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ASSOCIATED WITH THE TAIL END OF OUR OLD COLD FRONT BOUNDARY...BUT THESE ARE NOT AS SIGNIFICANT AS THEY WERE OVERNIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS MOSTLY RAIN FREE WITH ABUNDANT DRY MID TO UPPER AIR AND ZONAL UPPER FLOW. LOOK FOR THE FRONT TO CONTINUE PUSHING THROUGH THE GULF THROUGH TOMORROW WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/TSTMS GENERALLY WITHIN 200NM OF THE FRONT. INCREASING NLY WINDS OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO GALE FORCE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW STEEP N WIND WAVES TO GRADUALLY REPLACE THE EXISTING PREFRONTAL S WIND WAVES. SEE MIAOFFNT4 FOR MORE DETAILS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE TAIL END OF A STRONG ATLC FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN AS A TROUGH FROM HISPANIOLA TO THE NE PART OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS NOTED WITHIN 75NM OF THIS BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LOW IS SEEN IN WV IMAGERY BETWEEN HONDURAS AND CUBA NEAR 17N83W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS SEEN ROTATING AROUND THIS UPPER LOW FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 80W-85W. THE SW CARIBBEAN DOMINATED BY BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ROTATING ANTICYCLONICALLY AROUND AN UPPER HIGH E OF NICARAGUA NEAR 12N80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ALSO NOTED UNDER THIS UPPER HIGH OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THE ERN CARIBBEAN IS MAINLY DRY...WITH MODERATE DRY AIR ALOFT AND NLY UPPER FLOW BETWEEN THE UPPER HIGH E OF NICARAGUA AND A BROAD UPPER LOW NEAR TRINIDAD. THIS FLOW IS ADVECTING SOME MOISTURE S OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO THOUGH...FROM THE LITTLE LEFTOVER CONVECTION FROM THE ATLC COLD FRONT. MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE IN THE ERN CARIB THIS WEEKEND AS A TROPICAL WAVE AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES...CURRENTLY 260 NM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE ATLC. HIGH PRES RIDGING EXISTS ACROSS THE ERN U.S. AND A PORTION OF THE WRN ATLC W OF 67W. A LARGE STRONG TROUGH LIES TO THE E OF THE RIDGE. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY BECOME LESS DEFINED...AND IS ANALYZED ALONG 32N49W 23N60W TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 250NM MAINLY E OF THE FRONT...AND HAVE DIMINISHED A BIT SINCE LAST NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS EXISTS WITH STRATOCUMULUS AND NW FLOW. THE ASSOCIATED NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD E THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND SUBSIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LARGE STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS LOCATED E OF THE TROUGH CENTERED IN THE SUBTROPICS NEAR 30N30W. THIS RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 45W AND N OF 19N WITH DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT WIDESPREAD IN THE REGION. SFC HIGH PRES IS ALSO ANALYZED UNDERNEATH THE MID/UPPER RIDGE WITH A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 32N27W. FURTHER SOUTH...AN UPPER LOW WHICH CUT OFF FROM THE STRONG TROUGH THAT WAS IN THE E ATLC EARLIER THIS WEEK...IS TRACKING WSW CENTERED NEAR 14N37W. W OF THIS UPPER LOW THERE IS AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 13N51W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND AN UPPER LOW NEAR TRINIDAD IS HELPING SUPPORT THE CONVECTION AROUND THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 54W. $$ WILLIS