000 AXNT20 KNHC 261814 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU OCT 26 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W/52W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12N. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 49W AND 56W. AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W/68W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS SOUTH OF 19N BETWEEN 59W AND 68W MAY BE MORE RELATED TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RATHER THAN TO THE WAVE. ...THE ITCZ... 13N14W 7N30W 11N50W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 1N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 45W. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 8N13W 7N15W 5N20W 4N24W 3N30W. 6N10W 4N20W 9N43W 11N47W 14N56W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 22W AND 25W...FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 19W AND 20W...AND FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 50W AND 58W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA...THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH RUNS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE/SOUTHERN ALABAMA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR PREVAILS SOUTH OF 28N. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA TO SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. THE CURRENT RUN OF THE 500 MB GFS MODEL SHOWS THE NEXT DEEP LAYER TROUGH TO MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL U.S.A. ON 27/0600 UTC TO MOVE TO THE U.S.A. EAST COAST AND DRAPE ACROSS FLORIDA BY 29/0600 UTC. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 17N83W. A COLD FRONT GOES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH 24N60W TO 20N70W TO 19N77W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM NORTHWESTERN HAITI TO 19N80W TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING FROM EASTERN JAMAICA AND THE NEARBY WATERS TOWARD THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO SOUTHWESTERN HAITI...AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN 82W AND 86W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN EASTERN COASTAL HONDURAS. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 82W AND 85W FROM NORTHEASTERN COSTA RICA TO SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN 78W AND SOUTHEASTERN COSTA RICA...JUST NORTH OF THE ITCZ. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 11N61W. A TROUGH RUNS FROM THIS CYCLONIC CENTER TO 18N58W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 12N TO 19N BETWEEN 59W AND 68W. CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM COVERS THE AREA EAST OF 65W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 65W AND 80W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH...THROUGH 32N62W TO 26N66W TO 21N70W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT WHICH PASSES THROUGH 32N47W TO 24N60W TO 20N70W TO 19N77W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THROUGH 32N45W TO 28N50W TO 25N56W. SIMILAR PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 25N56W 22N63W 19N70W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS TO THE WEST OF THIS FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE GOES FROM 23N55W TO 27N40W TO A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N33W BEYOND 32N30W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 50W. A DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF PORTUGAL. CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INTO CENTRAL MAURITANIA ON THE AFRICAN CONTINENT. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EAST OF 20W NORTH OF 18N. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 14N34W. A BIG AND WELL-PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GOES FROM 23N34W TO 27N32W BEYOND 36N32W. $$ MT