000 AXNT20 KNHC 261029 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU OCT 26 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W/51W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD MID LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 45W-55W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W S OF 21N MOVING W 10 KT. WEAK LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N14W 6N32W 12N50W THEN DISTORTED BY SURFACE FEATURES CONTINUING ACROSS SOUTH AMERICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 30W-35W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-10N BETWEEN 27W-44W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE 4N22W TO OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 7N14W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21N92W EXTENDING N TO OVER THE SE US AND ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE FAR W ATLC. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OVER THE E US AND THE GULF N OF 23N E OF 90W. RETURN SURFACE FLOW HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS LEAVING ONLY WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF 94W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS CLEAR THIS MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... NARROWING UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM HONDURAS NEAR 15N84W NE TO E CUBA NEAR 20N76W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 17N83W NNE TO THE NE TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE FROM THE W ATLC COLD FRONT ACROSS CUBA NEAR 20N75W TO JUST S OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 19N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N-21N W OF 80W AND N OF 16N ACROSS JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA FROM 68W-77W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA/PANAMA NEAR 11N77W NE INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC OVER THE VIRGIN/LEEWARD ISLANDS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE INLAND AND WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST FROM COLOMBIA TO NICARAGUA WHICH IS ALONG THE W EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS RATHER SHOWER FREE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE FAR W ATLC W OF 74W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC IS N OF 21N FROM 51W-74W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N49W EXTENDING SW JUST S OF THE S BAHAMA ISLANDS TO E CUBA NEAR 20N74W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 24N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT TO OVER HISPANIOLA. VERY DRY AIR IS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCATTERED COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE W ATLC. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE VIRGIN/LEEWARD ISLANDS TO 24N55W AND A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST TO THE E EXTENDING FROM 28N48W SW TO NEAR 18N54W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 12N56W-20N59W AND IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. BROAD AND DRY UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 28N35W COVERING THE AREA FROM 20W-44W. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 13N32W. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR E ATLC N OF 17N E OF 20W. ALSO AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE COVERS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 20W-47W WITH A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 31N31W. $$ WALLACE