000 AXNT20 KNHC 260521 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU OCT 26 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD MID LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 45W-53W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W S OF 21N MOVING W 10 KT. WEAK LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W/77W IS NO LONGER EVIDENT. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 6N30W 11N43W 13N62W ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN AND PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR 8N78W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 250/300 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 24W-44W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE 5N20W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 8N13W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21N94W EXTENDING N TO OVER THE SE US. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OVER THE E US AND THE GULF N OF 24N E OF 92W. RETURN SURFACE FLOW IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE 21N95W-TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 27N97W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS CLEAR TONIGHT WITH ONLY SCATTERED COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS DOTTING THE AREA. CARIBBEAN SEA... NARROWING UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM HONDURAS NEAR 15N85W NE TO E CUBA NEAR 21N77W. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STATIONARY FROM THE W ATLC COLD FRONT ACROSS CUBA NEAR 21N76W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT W OF 82W AND N OF 17N ACROSS JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...AND E CUBA FROM 69W-78W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA/PANAMA NEAR 11N77W NE INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE W EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE S OF 15N FROM 77W-84W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS RATHER SHOWER FREE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE FAR W ATLC W OF 76W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC IS N OF 22N FROM 53W-76W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N51W EXTENDING SW JUST S OF THE S BAHAMA ISLANDS TO OVER E CUBA NEAR 21N76W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 23N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120/150 NM SE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT TO OVER E CUBA. VERY DRY AIR IS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCATTERED COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE W ATLC TO 80W. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO 26N54W AND A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST TO THE E EXTENDING FROM 26N48W SW TO JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 18N57W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 13N54W-TO 21N58W AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE W OF THE TROUGH FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN 57W-63W. BROAD AND DRY UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 28N35W COVERING THE AREA FROM 24W-45W. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 13N32W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR E ATLC N OF 20N E OF 23W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INLAND OVER W AFRICA. ALSO AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE COVERS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 20W-50W WITH A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 29N35W. $$ WALLACE