000 AXNT20 KNHC 251030 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED OCT 25 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD MID LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/ CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W S OF 20N MOVING W 10 KT. WEAK LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W/77W S OF 17N DRIFTING WESTWARD. WAVE IS BENEATH A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WITH NO DISCERNIBLE SATELLITE SIGNATURE WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 4N21W 11N40W 12N60W ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR 9N83W. SCATTERED/ NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 44W-48W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-15N BETWEEN 42W 52W. ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS DOT THE AREA WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 10W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N94W EXTENDING N TO OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A 1022 MB HIGH IS LOCATED ALONG THE COAST OF MISSISSIPPI NEAR 30N89W. RETURN SURFACE FLOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 24N97W INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N93W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS CLEAR THIS MORNING WITH ONLY THIN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE E GULF S OF 28N E OF 93W. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM E CUBA NEAR 20N77W TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 16N86W. THE COLD FRONT FROM THE W ATLC EXTENDS AS A STATIONARY FRONT INTO THE CARIBBEAN OVER E/CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 20N78W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N64W N INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE W EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE S OF 15N FROM 79W-84W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS RATHER SHOWER FREE THIS MORNING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT MOVED OFF THE E US COAST COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 22N W OF 59W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N56W EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE S BAHAMA ISLANDS TO OVER E/CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 21N77W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 25N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200 NM SE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT TO OVER E CUBA. VERY DRY AIR IS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE W ATLC TO 80W. THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A NARROWING UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO 25N58W BECOMING ENTRAINED IN A BROAD AND VERY DRY UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 28N41W COVERING THE AREA FROM 25W-50W. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 24N52W SW TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 14N60W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 52W-58W. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 16N28W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC N OF 21N E OF 25W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N12W ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 27N18W THEN DISSIPATING TO 25N25W. ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWERS ARE N OF THE REGION. ALSO AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE COVERS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 25W-55W WITH A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 27N38W. $$ WALLACE