000
AXNT20 KNHC 240007
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON OCT 23 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... 
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.  A 
SMALL LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER IS NOTED NEAR 12N32W.  WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 26W-32W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 
31W-34W.   

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W/55W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT.  LOW 
LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER IS NOTED NEAR 13N55W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 54W-58W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W S OF 20N MOVING W 15 KT.  INVERTED 
V PATTERN IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.  WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 
70W-73W.  

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 8N22W 10N30W 11N40W 13N50W 
9N61W.  BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE 
SECTION... WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-13N 
BETWEEN 38W-45W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NEAR TRINIDAD FROM 
10N-12N BETWEEN 59W-62W.   

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA NEAR 26N80W 
TO THE W GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 22N90W 23N92W.  A STATIONARY FRONT 
CONTINUES W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 23N96W 19N96W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONTS.  20-25 KT NLY 
SURFACE WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONTS.  A MARK TEMPERATURE GRADIENT 
IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE FRONTS WITH SIGNIFICANT COOLING N OF THE 
FRONTS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
IS OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO N OF 27N.  WLY FLOW IS OVER THE 
REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO S OF 27N.   EXPECT THE COLD 
FRONT TO PUSH SE AND EXTEND FROM W CUBA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE 
BY TUESDAY EVENING.  EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BESIDES THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA... A 
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE COAST OF NICARAGUA ALONG 19N82W 
12N83W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 
82W-85W.  ELSEWHERE... WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
ON THE N COAST OF CUBA FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 75W-81W.  IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF 
HONDURAS NEAR 17N82W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 10N BETWEEN 
78W-90W.  AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N HISPANIOLA NEAR 
20N69W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 10N BETWEEN 60W-78W.  EXPECT 
MORE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 2100 UTC A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 30N74W 
26N80W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.  A 
PREFRONTAL TROUGH THAT IS DELINEATED BY A WIND SHIFT IS ALONG 
29N74W 23N83W.  FURTHER W...A 1011 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC 
NEAR 26N65W.  A 1017 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 
26N52W.  A SURFACE TROUGH IS FURTHER E OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC 
ALONG 25N42W 18N48W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE 
TROUGH.  A 1017 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 23N32W.  IN 
THE UPPER LEVELS... SW FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OFF THE NE 
FLORIDA COAST N OF 26N BETWEEN 65W-80W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS N 
OF HISPANIOLA TO 26N BETWEEN 65W-78W.  A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW 
IS CENTERED NEAR 23N60W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 300 NM OF THE 
CENTER.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 20N49W.  
CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 300 NM OF THE CENTER.  A THIRD UPPER 
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 21N30W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 
15N-25N BETWEEN 25W-37W.   

$$
FORMOSA