000 AXNT20 KNHC 222346 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN OCT 22 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W S OF 22N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A 1010 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N49.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 50W-57W. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N14W 9N30W 9N40W 14N50W 10N60W. PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER W AFRICA FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 10W-16W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 24W-30W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 50W-57W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA NEAR 30N84W TO NE MEXICO NEAR 22N97W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES W TO THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONTS. 10-15 KT NLY SURFACE WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONTS WHILE 10 KT ELY WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONTS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE SE GULF OF MEXICO HAS NE CYCLONIC FLOW S OF 25N AND E OF 87W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW. A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 27N. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH SE AND EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO NE MEXICO BY MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE STRONGEST OVER THE W GULF S OF THE FRONT. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 15N82W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS N TO W CUBA NEAR 22N82W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF JAMAICA FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 77W-82W... AND OVER CUBA FROM 22N-23N BETWEEN 81W-83W. ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ON THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 69W-73W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 17N82W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 10N BETWEEN 78W-90W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 10N BETWEEN 60W-78W. EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1012 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 25N64W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N61W TO 20N68W WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 57W-64W. A 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N52W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS FURTHER E OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 33N29W 27N39W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. A 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 24N27W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... SW FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST N OF 28N BETWEEN 75W-80W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE W BAHAMAS S OF 27N BETWEEN 78W-80W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 60W-78W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 23N50W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 300 NM OF THE CENTER. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 21N34W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 15N-28N BETWEEN 25W-43W. $$ FORMOSA