000 AXNT20 KNHC 212358 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT OCT 21 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W SOUTH OF 21N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 40W-43W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 61W-65W. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N16W 8N20W 5N30W 6N40W 6N45W 6N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 9W-14W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 17W-20W... FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 22W-29W... AND FROM 3N-11N BETWEEN 35W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N80W TO THE E GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N85W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES W TO SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N91W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI COASTS FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 88W-92W MOVING NE. LIGHT SELY SURFACE FLOW COVERS THE GULF S OF THE FRONTS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 22N94W MOVING W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NE TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF EXCEPT N OF THE WARM FRONT. EXPECT A NEW COLD FRONT THAT IS PRESENTLY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS TO EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NE MEXICO BY SUNDAY EVENING WITH CONVECTION OVER S TEXAS AND NE MEXICO AND THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH CONVECTION. SEE ABOVE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N OF PUERTO RICO TO S OF HISPANIOLA ALONG 23N67W 16N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM JAMAICA TO NICARAGUA ALONG 18N79W 14N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER NICARAGUA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 80W-86W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER JAMAICA AND S CUBA FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 77W-80W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NELY FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA N OF 16N AND W OF 82W DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER JAMAICA NEAR 18N78W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 10N-25N BETWEEN 70W-82W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 20N62W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS E OF 70W. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO PRODUCE MORE CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN PANAMA AND E CUBA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N77W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N80W. A 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N53W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS FURTHER E OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 34N42W 26N45W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. A 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 26N32W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... SW FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OFF THE FLORIDA COAST N OF 27N BETWEEN 70W-80W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE BAHAMAS S OF 26N BETWEEN 70W-80W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BETWEEN 55W-70W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N37W MOVING E. CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 300 NM OF THE CENTER. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 5N-20N AND E OF 40W. $$ FORMOSA