000
AXNT20 KNHC 202334
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION       
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI OCT 20 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... 
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W SOUTH OF 22N MOVING 
WEST 10 TO 15 KT.  A 1010 MB LOW IS ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N41W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN 
31W-39W.  

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING 
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF 
LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 
48W-53W.   

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 6N20W 6N30W 8N41W 9N60W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W AFRICA 
FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 9W-15W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 11W-24W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 30W-33W...AND FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 33W-45W.  
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES 
FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 56W-62W.  

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA NEAR 30N81W 
TO 26N90W TO A 1008 MB LOW OFF THE COAST OF NE MEXICO NEAR 
25N95W.  A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES S FROM THE LOW TO THE BAY 
OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N96W AND EXTENDS INLAND OVER MEXICO TO THE 
FOOTHILLS OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS ALONG 20N99W 
25N100W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONTS.  IN 
THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N88W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF EXCEPT OVER THE FRONTAL 
SYSTEM.  EXPECT THE FRONT TO LIFT N AS A WARM FRONT AND EXTEND 
INLAND OVER THE N GULF STATES FROM N FLORIDA TO E TEXAS BY 
SATURDAY EVENING.  THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL THEN HAVE LIGHT SLY 
SURFACE FLOW W OF 90W AND LIGHT ELY FLOW E OF 90W.    

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1006 MB LOW IS S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N69W.  A TROUGH EXTENDS 
N FROM THE LOW TO THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 21N69W 24N67W.  ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES FROM 17N-20N 
BETWEEN 64W-74W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS OVER VENEZUELA AND THE SE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 
6N-12N BETWEEN 63W-70W.  PATCHES OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA TO 
GUATEMALA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NELY FLOW WITH STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 82W DUE TO THE UPPER 
LEVEL HIGH OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS 
CENTERED SE OF JAMAICA NEAR 17N75W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 
10N-22N BETWEEN 67W-82W.  SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS E 
OF 72W.  EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.        

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1016 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N58W.  A 1010 
MB LOW IS FURTHER E OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N48W.  A 
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW ALONG 27N50W 25N54W.  SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE FROM 27N-33N BETWEEN 47W-51W.  A 1019 MB HIGH IS 
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 27N32W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 24N AND W OF 50W.  A SMALL UPPER LEVEL 
LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N44W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 300 NM OF 
THE CENTER.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 5N 
AND E OF 38W.   

$$
FORMOSA