000 AXNT20 KNHC 201805 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI OCT 20 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...A SPECIAL FEATURE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE EASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...TOWARD THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...AND ENDING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TROUGH STARTS THROUGH 32N45W TO 31N48W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 26N47W TO 25N54W TO 22N65W...TO 15N76W AND FINALLY TO A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 10N81W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS NORTHWEST THIS DEEP LAYER TROUGH. THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH IS FILLED WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM PANAMA AND COSTA RICA TO 11N BETWEEN 81W AND LAND. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE ON THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH 24N66W TO 21N68W TO A 1006 MB CARIBBEAN SEA LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 18N69W JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 14N70W AND TO 11N73W IN THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF COLOMBIA. UPPER LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO BE UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT EVEN THOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED CONCENTRATED NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W SOUTH OF 22N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 35W AND 39W. THE PRECIPITATION THAT EARLIER WAS FROM 13N TO 19N BETWEEN 30W AND 35W HAS WEAKENED AS THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS NOT READILY APPARENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AT THIS THIS MOMENT. ...THE ITCZ... 9N13W 8N20W 9N30W 12N38W 12N41W 11N45W 10N50W 10N53W 10N62W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 10W AND 30W...AND FROM 2N TO 8N BETWEEN 30W AND 51W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPECIFICALLY ARE FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 38W AND 40W...AND FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 40W AND 41W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA. A RIDGE RUNS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 22N97W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD...WITHIN 60 TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 30N84W 27N90W 24N98W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. THIS AREA OF DRY AIR IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOST RECENT COLD FRONT THAT NOW IS MOVING THROUGH TEXAS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 30N84W TO 27N90W TO 26N94W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 26N94W TO 25N95W 22N96W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 21N97W...CURVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER MEXICO TO 22N99W 25N100W AND 27N102W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT AND STATIONARY FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE MEXICO COAST FROM 18.5N TO 19.5N BETWEEN 95W AND 96W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... INFORMATION ABOUT THIS AREA HAS BEEN COVERED ALREADY IN THE SECTION ABOUT THE SPECIAL FEATURE AT THE TOP OF THE PAGE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS PRESENT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA DEEP LAYER TROUGH. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 37W AND 60W...AROUND THE SURFACE TROUGH. IT APPEARS THAT A COMPARATIVELY SMALLER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 14N46W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS EAST OF 40W COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE ITCZ TO 22N EAST OF 40W...AND ALSO NORTH OF 24N EAST OF 25W. LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS SOUTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 50W. $$ MT