000 AXNT20 KNHC 191034 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU OCT 19 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. SOME CYCLONIC TURNING IS SEEN ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 30W-36W. SW SHEAR ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE CONTINUES TO STRETCH THE ASSOCIATED HIGH CLOUDS TO THE NE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE SHOWS AN INVERTED V SIGNATURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS NOTED ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 40W-46W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N14W 8N25W 12N32W 11N40W 7N58W. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 40 NM SOUTH OF THE AXIS EAST OF 18W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 18W-25W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A LARGE MID/UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED ON A HIGH LOCATED NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE GULF AND THE STATE OF FLORIDA...AS WELL AS THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. DRY AIR RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS MOST OF THE AREA. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF MODERATE SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS ERN TEXAS... NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI ASSOCIATED WITH THE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT S OF A COLD FRONT. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EXTEND FROM THE NE GULF TO THE NE MEXICAN COAST ON FRIDAY. NLY WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT AND INVADE THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF LATER TODAY. AN ATLC SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY DOMINATES THE REGION WITH SLY WINDS OF 10-15 KT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED NEAR 20N66W OR JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE CLOUDINESS AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE MAINLY IS OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 61W-65W. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS AFFECTING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED. ACCORDING TO THE GFS MODEL...THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE NWD AND AWAY FROM PUERTO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SSW FROM THIS 1006MB LOW PRESSURE AREA TO LA GUAJIRA PENINSULA WHERE TSTMS FLARE UP EARLY THIS MORNING. IN THE UPPER LEVELS THE LARGE UPPER HIGH SITUATED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS TROUGH EXTENDS FROM PUERTO RICO TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OF 1007 MB IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N74W. IN GENERAL...WINDS ARE LIGHT ACROSS THE BASIN DUE TO A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... NLY UPPER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LARGE UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE WRN ATLC W OF 68W. A 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE W-CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 34N61W EXTENDS A RIDGE SW ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...CUBA AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 25N56W. THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING PATCHES OF MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 16N-30N BETWEEN 50W-55W. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N-48W TO THE LOW THAT REMAINS NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. STRONG UPPER WLY FLOW IS OVER THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC WATERS E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF THE UPPER LOW MENTIONED ABOVE. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIES ALONG 40W. EAST OF THIS FEATURE THERE IS A RIDGE COVERING BETWEEN 20W-35W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND WESTERN AFRICA. A 1017 MB SURFACE HIGH DOMINATES THE E-CENTRAL ATLC EAST OF 45W. ONLY PATCHES OF MAINLY LOW CLOUDS ARE FOUND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM THAT REACHES THE CANARY ISLANDS. $$ GR