000 AXNT20 KNHC 190554 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU OCT 19 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. SOME CYCLONIC TURNING IS SEEN ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N. SCATTRED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM BETWEEN 31W-35W... AND FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 25N-30W. SW SHEAR ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE CONTINUES TO STRETCH THE ASSOCIATED HIGH CLOUDS TO THE NE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43/44W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE SHOWS AN INVERTED V SIGNATURE AND DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS MINIMAL WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS NOTED ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 41W-47W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N16W 10N30W 10N40W 9N46W 7N58W. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTRED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND WITHIN AROUND 200 NM SOUTH OF THE AXIS WEST OF 34W. A SMALL CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED NEAR 9N24W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A LARGE MID/UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED ON A HIGH LOCATED NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE GULF AND THE STATE OF FLORIDA...AS WELL AS THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. DRY AIR RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF MODERATE SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS OVER ERN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT S OF A COLD FRONT. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY TODAY AND EXTEND FROM FLORIDA BIG BEND TO SW GULF EARLY FRIDAY. NLY WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT AND INVADE THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF TODAY. AN ATLC SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY DOMINATES THE REGION WITH SLY WINDS OF 10-15 KT. CARIBBEAN SEA... CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT HAS BEEN MEANDERING JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE PREVIOUS DAY HAVE INCREASED. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR DEPICTS NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS. ACCORDING TO THE GFS MODEL...THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE NWD AND AWAY FROM PUERTO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SSW TO THE ABC ISLANDS FROM THIS 1006MB LOW PRESSURE AREA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS THE LARGE UPPER HIGH ANCHORED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS FEATURE EXTENDS FROM PUERTO RICO TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OF 1006 MB IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N75W. WINDS ARE LIGHT ACROSS THE BASIN DUE TO A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... NLY UPPER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LARGE UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE WRN ATLC W OF 68W. A 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 35N60W EXTENDS A RIDGE SW ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...CUBA AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 25N58W. THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING PATCHES OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITH THE STRONGEST ONE JUST NEAR THE BASE OF THE THROUGH FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 55W-58W. AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N48W TO 28N53W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS POINT TO THE LOW THAT REMAINS NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. STRONG UPPER WLY FLOW IS OVER THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC WATERS E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF THE UPPER ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LOW. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIES ALONG 40W. EAST OF THIS FEATURE THERE IS A RIDGE COVERING BETWEEN 20W-35W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND WESTERN AFRICA. A 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH DOMINATES THE E-CENTRAL ATLC EAST OF 48W. $$ GR