000 AXNT20 KNHC 161757 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON OCT 16 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W S OF 18N MOVING W AT 10 KT. LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS NOW NOTED BENEATH HIGH CLOUDS. CONVECTION IS MOSTLY E OF THE WAVE AXIS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 26W-33W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 60W-63W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY AIR WITH A FAINT INVERTED-V SIGNATURE AND NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 9N20W 12N33W 6N50W 7N60W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-14N BETWEEN 21W-27W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 31W-37W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 41W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ALONG 22N80W 26N86W 30N88W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES INLAND OVER THE N GULF STATES. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND FROM E TEXAS TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM 30N-34N BETWEEN 87W-96W DUE TO THE WARM FRONT. A GALE IS OVER THE NW GULF N OF 27N BETWEEN 87W-95W DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG SLY FLOW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 23N86W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE E OF 90W. EXPECT BY TUE MORNING FOR A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE TEXAS COAST AND SLY SURFACE FLOW BE THROUGHOUT THE GULF OF MEXICO. GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE NW GULF WILL END BY MONDAY EVENING. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL ALSO DISSIPATE BY MONDAY EVENING. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING INTO THE E CARIBBEAN SEA AND IS PRODUCING CONVECTION W OF THE WAVE AXIS. SEE ABOVE. A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 19N66W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N72W. THE LOW IS IN A VERY HOSTILE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG NWLY SHEAR. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE TROUGH TO INCLUDE PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 72W IS VOID OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... NELY FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA N OF 10N. A TINY UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AT 19N64W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER. EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N56W TO 28N60W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO E CUBA NEAR 21N75W. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FURTHER TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N80W. A 1009 MB LOW IS N OF PUERTO RICO...SEE ABOVE. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N59W 27N64W 21N67W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH FROM 20N-32N BETWEEN 57W-63W. A 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N38W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 32N17W 30N25W 32N31W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF FRONT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF AFRICAN DUST OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 5N-20N E 52W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-68W. A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-60W. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 20N43W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 10N-30N BETWEEN 20W-50W. $$ FORMOSA