000 AXNT20 KNHC 161014 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON OCT 16 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W S OF 18N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. BROAD MID LEVEL WELL DEFINED INVERTED-V SIGNATURE. HEAVIEST CONVECTION IS BEING DISPLACED TO THE E BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 30W-36W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W S OF 21N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SHARP LOW LEVEL WELL-DEFINED INVERTED-V SIGNATURE. WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF DRY AIR WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W/87W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN SOME RATHER DRY AIR WITH A FAINT INVERTED-V SIGNATURE WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 10N22W 12N31W 8N42W INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N55W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-17N BETWEEN 12W-30W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 42W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED NEAR 23N92W EXTENDING E INTO THE W ATLC FORCING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY N THAT REMAINS ACROSS THE GULF. A PORTION OF THE FRONT HAS BECOME STATIONARY FROM CUBA NEAR 23N82W NW TO 26N85W WHERE THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES OVER S LOUISIANA NEAR 30N90W. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC. TROPICAL MOISTURE IS ACROSS THE NW GULF PROVIDING HEAVY RAIN AND NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE N GULF N OF 27N FROM 87W-97W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS RELATIVELY SHOWER FREE...HOWEVER HIGH CLOUDS DO COVER ALL BUT THE SE GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS E ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TO 70W DRYING OUT THE AREA EXCEPT SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF 71W FROM 14N-18N. THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC DIPS S INTO THE CARIBBEAN N OF 13N FROM 63W-70W. A 1009 MB LOW REMAINS N OF PUERTO RICO GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N E OF 69W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC TO 70W DRYING OUT THE AREA. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC JUST E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N63W S ALONG 24N64W INTO THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE WITH THE ASSOCIATED WEAKENING COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N58W EXTENDING SW 25N69W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO CUBA NEAR 22N78W CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS BETWEEN A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 26N63W TO A 1009 MB LOW N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 21N67W. A SHARP UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR 20N60W N TO BEYOND 32N53W PROVIDING ENOUGH DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 325 NM SE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN 20N27N AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N FROM 52W-61W. NARROW DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC THROUGH 32N20W SW ALONG 25N30W TO A WEAKENING UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 21N42W. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 32N13W EXTENDING TO OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 27N19W. DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN PLACE...NO SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. AN UPPER HIGH IS IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N22W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING N OF 24N21W. THIS IS DISPLACING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 32W. $$ WALLACE