000 AXNT20 KNHC 152355 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN OCT 15 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W/30W S OF 17N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. BROAD LOW/MID LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS NOTED. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 24W-30W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W S OF 23N MOVING W 15 KT. LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS NOTED WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN SOME RATHER DRY AIR AND IS GENERATING NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N15W 9N20W 9N50W 10N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W AFRICA FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 9W-13W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 21W-25W...FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 32W-37W...AND FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 40W-43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 22N80W 25N88W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 30N94W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 88W-96W. A 1000 MB LOW IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 22N96W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 93W-97W. A GALE IS OVER THE NW GULF N OF 27N BETWEEN 89W-94W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... MOSTLY WLY FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT BY MONDAY EVENING FOR A WARM FRONT TO EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT SLY SURFACE FLOW THROUGHOUT THE GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY EVENING...WITH GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE NW GULF ENDING. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. SEE ABOVE. A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 21N67W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N75W. THE LOW IS IN A VERY HOSTILE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG NWLY SHEAR. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 64W-70W TO INCLUDE PUERTO RICO. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS VOID OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... NELY FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA N OF 10N. A NEAR 10N72W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER. EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N64W 24N75W 22N80W. A 1008 MB LOW IS N OF PUERTO RICO...SEE ABOVE. ANOTHER 1009 MB LOW IS FURTHER NE NEAR 27N64W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N59W 27N64W 21N67W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH FROM 20N-32N BETWEEN 57W-63W. A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N41W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 32N15W 27N20W 25N35W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF FRONT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF AFRICAN DUST OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 5N-20N E 50W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-68W. A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-60W. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 20N43W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 10N-30N BETWEEN 20W-50W. $$ FORMOSA