000 AXNT20 KNHC 141753 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT OCT 14 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ADDED TO THE 1200 UTC ANALYSIS ALONG 23W/24W S OF 16N BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS AND UPPER AIR DATA. THE WAVE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED INVERTED-V SHAPE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 70 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. THE WAVE IS CROSSING JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W S OF 23N MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD LOW LEVEL WELL-DEFINED INVERTED-V SIGNATURE. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 37W-44W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY DRY AIR...SO LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SATELLITE SIGNATURE IS EVIDENT OR ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/ CONVECTION. WAVE POSITION IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 94W S OF 21N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO INLAND OVER MEXICO AND THE E PACIFIC REGION. A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WAS ON THE NORTHERN END OF WAVE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...BUT LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CLOUD TOPS WARMING UP. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N17W 7N30W 8N40W 10N50W 9N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60/90NM NORTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 26W-36W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS JUST WEST OF DAKAR. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A VERY LARGE DEEP LAYERED LOW CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS COVERING THE E HALF OF THE US INTO THE W ATLC. AS OF 1500 UTC... THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE SE GULF EXTENDING W TO NEAR 24N90W WHERE IT CONTINUES NEAR STATIONARY TO NE MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO. A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 20N-25N WEST OF 91W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO... PARTICULARLY BETWEEN TAMPICO AND TUXPAN. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCED THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ALSO AT THE UPPER LEVELS... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF...MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA ANCHORED ON A HIGH NEAR VERACRUZ. THIS FEATURE IS GIVING THE GULF WESTERLY UPPER FLOW WHICH IS ADVECTING ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF N OF 23N. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE MAINLY NORTH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH STRONG AND GUSTY E TO SE WINDS E OF LOW PRES CENTER. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH MEXICO EXTENDS E ALONG 20N OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN DRYING OUT THE ENTIRE AREA. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE GULF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N71W. THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE ABC ISLANDS AND THE NW CORNER OF VENEZUELA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...PANAMA AND COSTA RICA DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ AXIS. A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA OF 1008 MB IS LOCATED NEAR 20N66W OR A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD. SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS MINIMAL...AND TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED. LINES OF LOW CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ARE AFFECTING MAINLY THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS AFFECTING THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE U.S. EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC N OF 30N W OF 57W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N73W EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT OVER THE W ATLC. THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE SW ATLC...INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. VERY NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N58W S TO JUST N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. A SHARP UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 16N60W N TO BEYOND 32N50W PROVIDING ENOUGH DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N-31N BETWEEN 51W-57W. BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 22N41W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 31N24W THEN CONTINUES SW TO 26N40W. A BAND OF MAINLY LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS WESTERN AFRICA. $$ GR