000 AXNT20 KNHC 140514 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT OCT 14 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W/42W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE 1009 MB LOW HAS DISSIPATED. WELL-DEFINED INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IN THE LOW LEVELS. EVEN THOUGH THE WAVE IS IN AN AREA OF DRY AIR SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 35W-43W AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 40W-42W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W/74W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN SOME VERY DRY AIR...SO LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SATELLITE SIGNATURE IS EVIDENT AND SO NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. WAVE POSITION IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W/91W S OF 22N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA BUT REMAINS WELL-DEFINED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS INLAND AS WELL. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N12W 8N40W 8N61W ACROSS SOUTH AMERICA AND PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF AFRICA FROM 12N-15N E OF 19W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-11N BETWEEN 10W-45W AND FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 42W-53W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... VERY LARGE DEEP LAYERED LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND COVERS THE E HALF OF THE US TO THE N GULF COAST. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR TAMPA EXTENDING W ALONG 26N90W TO NE MEXICO NEAR 25N98W THEN NNW TO OVER W TEXAS. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED NEAR MEXICO CITY EXTENDING E ALONG 20N GIVING THE GULF WESTERLY UPPER FLOW. THIS IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF N OF 22N GIVING THE AREA FROM 22N-28N W OF 88W SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF N OF 22N FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER MEXICO EXTENDS E ALONG 20N TO 73W DRYING OUT THE ENTIRE AREA. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER THE E CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO AN UPPER OFF THE COAST OF NW VENEZUELA NEAR 13N70W. ALTHOUGH IS IS PROVIDING THE E CARIBBEAN WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS DO THE AREA E OF 70W. THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N FROM COLOMBIA TO CENTRAL AMERICA HAS SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ AXIS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE US EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC N OF 30N W OF 60W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N76W EXTENDING SW ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR DAYTONA BEACH. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WELL E OF THE FRONT N OF 30N FROM 57W-65W. TROPICAL MOISTURE CROSSES FLORIDA FROM THE GULF COVERING THE AREA FROM 26N-30N W OF 75W...HOWEVER NO SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT. THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE SW ATLC ALONG 20N TO 70W DRYING OUT THE S BAHAMA ISLANDS. VERY NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N60W S TO ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. A 1008 MB LOW IS N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 22N65W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N-21N- BETWEEN 61W-66W. A SHARP UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM JUST E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N60W N TO BEYOND 32N53W PROVIDING ENOUGH DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 52W-62W. BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH EMBEDDED UPPER LOWS CENTERED NEAR 16N34W AND 25N42W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 32N27W EXTENDING SW TO 27N40W THE NW OUT OF THE REGION NEAR 32N49W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE COLD FRONT E OF 39W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 50W REMAINS RATHER SHOWER FREE TONIGHT. $$ WALLACE