000 AXNT20 KNHC 132346 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI OCT 13 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. A 1009 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N. CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 36W-43W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE LEFT BEHIND A 1008 MB LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY NEAR 22N66W OR A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. LINES OF LOW CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW ARE APPROACHING THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS S OF HISPANIOLA. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W SOUTH OF 22N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 9N30W 10N39W 7N50W 9N60W. OTHER THAN THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W AFRICA FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 13W-16W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 17W-19W...FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 28W-30W...AND FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 48W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO S TEXAS ALONG 29N80W 28N90W 26N97W 27N100W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 90W-100W. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ALONG 24N80W 25N87W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... MOSTLY WLY FLOW IS OVER THE GULF. A 110 KT JETSTREAM IS OVER TEXAS AND THE N GULF STATES ALONG 31N BETWEEN 100W-80W. EXPECT THE FRONT TO EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO S TEXAS BY SATURDAY EVENING WITH CONVECTION. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER NW VENEZUELA AND N COLOMBIA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 69W-70W...AND FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 73W-75W MOSTLY DUE TO THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 77W-83W ALSO DUE TO THE ITCZ. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 60W-64W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... NELY FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA N OF 10N AND W OF 73W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF VENEZUELA NEAR 13N68W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 240 NM OF THE CENTER. EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA ALONG 32N76W 29N80W. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 29N70W 25N75W 24N80W. A 1008 MB LOW IS N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 22N66W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N27W 29N37W 32N47W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM E OF 33W. A 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N16W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W. A TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-70W. ANOTHER RIDGE IS BETWEEN 50W-60W. A BROAD TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N AND E OF 50W. $$ FORMOSA