000
AXNT20 KNHC 122353
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION       
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU OCT 12 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... 
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
NONE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/37W S OF 18N MOVING W 10 KT. A 1010 
SURFACE LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N.  FURTHER 
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 34W-37W.   

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W/66W S OF 23N MOVING W AT 10 
KT. A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 23N.  
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT 
THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE LOCATED JUST WEST OF 
THE WAVE.  THE CHANCES OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMING IN THIS 
AREA ARE LOW.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 17N-24N BETWEEN 61W-64W.    

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W S OF 20N MOVING W 10 KT. BROAD LOW 
LEVEL INVERTED-V STRUCTURE IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.  NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED EXCEPT FOR INLAND PANAMA.  

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 1ON14W 8N25W 10N37W 8N50W 10N60W. 
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W 
AFRICA FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 13W-18W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 18W-20W.  ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 24W-30W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS ALSO E OF TRINIDAD FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 57W-60W. 

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS INLAND FROM S GEORGIA TO E TEXAS.  A 
PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS OVER FLORIDA AND THE E GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 
31N81W 27N84W 25N89W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED ON RADAR OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM 
24N-25N BETWEEN 80W-85W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... MOSTLY WLY FLOW 
IS OVER THE GULF.  A 110 KT JETSTREAM IS OVER TEXAS AND THE N 
GULF STATES ALONG 31N BETWEEN 100W-80W.  EXPECT THE FRONT TO 
EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO E TEXAS BY FRIDAY EVENING WITH 
CONVECTION.  ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE W GULF OF 
MEXICO...TO INCLUDE THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...DURING THE NEXT 24 
HOURS.   

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.  SEE 
ABOVE.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER NW 
VENEZUELA AND N COLOMBIA FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 69W-74W MOSTLY DUE 
TO THE ITCZ.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND 
OVER EL SALVADOR FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 91W-94W.  ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HAITI FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 71W-73W.  
IN THE UPPER LEVELS... NELY FLOW IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
CENTRAL AMERICA N OF 10N AND W OF 70W.  SWLY FLOW IS OVER THE E 
CARIBBEAN N OF 10N AND E OF 66W DUE TO ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE.  EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 65W-66W TO CONTINUE 
MOVING W AND PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN DURING 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N68W 28N70W 26N80W...THE 
REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH.  A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS 
OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 65W.  ANOTHER RIDGE IS BETWEEN 
50W-63W.  A BROAD TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N AND E 
OF 50W.    

$$
FORMOSA