000 AXNT20 KNHC 120612 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU OCT 12 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W/35W S OF 18N MOVING WEST 10 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 31W AND 35W. AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W/63W SOUTH OF 22N MOVING WEST 10 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 60W AND 62W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N TO 23N BETWEEN 58W AND 64W. IT IS LIKELY THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN SECTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ON THURSDAY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DO NOT FAVOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W/74W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS HISPANIOLA IN THE AREA OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AN EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 92W/93W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN A CLUSTER WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 15N93W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE BETWEEN 90W AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. ...THE ITCZ... 9N14W 6N23W 8N33W 8N36W 8N47W 11N61W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 13W AND 16W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 4N TO 12N BETWEEN AFRICA AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH WHICH IS MOVING TOWARD AND OFF THE CORNER OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IS NORTH OF 29N. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF WATERS... ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTERIOR MEXICO-TO-YUCATAN PENINSULA- TO EASTERN CUBA RIDGE. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER INTERIOR MEXICO...TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO THE EASTERN END OF CUBA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES ONLY THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA...WITH SHOWERS OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW GOES FROM PANAMA AND COLOMBIA INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH RUNS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST OF THE INTERIOR UNITED STATES OF AMERICA...ACROSS GEORGIA...AND INTO THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THIS TROUGH...AND IT LEADS TO THE NEXT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 29N67W 24N69W TO 17N70W IN THE EAST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH FROM 22N63W TO 26N60W BEYOND 33N58W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N43W. HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ON TOP OF THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH TO 33N24W TO 30N35W TO A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N45W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG A LINE ABOUT 300 NM WEST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. $$ MT