000 AXNT20 KNHC 120007 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED OCT 11 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W/35W S OF 17N MOVING W 10 KT. LOW/MID INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS NEAR 14N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 31W-35W. A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W S OF 22N MOVING W 10 KT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DO NOT FAVOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE...HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS MAY STILL OCCUR OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN 57W-61W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF PUERTO RICO FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 65W-69W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W/73W S OF 20N MOVING W 10 KT. BROAD LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 71W-74W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 1ON14W 6N20W 9N34W 9N50W 13N60W. OTHER THAN THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W AFRICA FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 8W-14W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-7N BETWEEN 30W-34W...AND FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 49W-53W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT IS INLAND OVER LOUISIANA AND E TEXAS. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 31N89W 28N91W 25N97W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 24N80W 23N90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED ON RADAR OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM 24N-25N BETWEEN 81W-85W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... MOSTLY WLY FLOW IS OVER THE GULF. A 110 KT JETSTREAM IS OVER TEXAS AND THE N GULF STATES ALONG 31N BETWEEN 106W-85W. EXPECT ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM N FLORIDA TO E TEXAS BY THURSDAY EVENING WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 77W-87W MOSTLY DUE TO THE ITCZ. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 83W-87W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL CUBA FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 77W-80W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... NLY FLOW IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA N OF 10N AND W OF 80W. WLY FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA N OF 10N AND E OF 80W DUE TO THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO CONTINUE MOVING W AND PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N65W 29N70W 24N80W...THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N46W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC BETWEEN 65W-80W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 14N55W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS N TO BEYOND 32N55W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS BETWEEN 45W-65W. A BROAD TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N AND E OF 40W. $$ FORMOSA