000 AXNT20 KNHC 110529 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED OCT 11 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W S OF 18N MOVING W 10 KT. LOW/MID LEVEL SWIRL NEAR 12N IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY HOWEVER THE WAVE IS UNDERGOING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF WESTERLY SHEAR. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 30W-34W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W S OF 24N MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD LOW/MID LEVEL WELL-DEFINED INVERTED-V IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N-15N BETWEEN 56W-62W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W S OF 20N MOVING W 10 KT. BROAD LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V STRUCTURE IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 68W-73W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N13W 9N19W 10N30W 9N43W 13N57W BECOMING ILL-DEFINED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TO REDEFINE OVER COLOMBIA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS PANAMA NEAR 9N82W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 52W-59W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-13N E OF 30W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 51W-57W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS INLAND BUT A SQUALL LINE HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA AND TEXAS EXTENDING ACROSS THE NW GULF WITH ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 25N W OF 88W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC ALONG THE W COAST OF MEXICO COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. AT THE SURFACE...A REMNANT FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W W TO 23N92W BUT WITH THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE NO SHOWERS ARE INDICATED. CARIBBEAN SEA... EAST/WEST UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE SW CARIBBEAN ANCHORED NEAR 11N82W S OF 16N W OF 70W. UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS S ACROSS CUBA/HAITI TO 16N BETWEEN 71W-80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 14N W OF 80W. BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE TROPICS COVERING THE CENTRAL ATLC INCLUDES THE E CARIBBEAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE S OF 11N FROM 73W-80W DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS CLEAR EXCEPT THE ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW N OF THE REGION THROUGH 32N71W S ACROSS CUBA/HAITI NEAR 21N77W WITH A REMNANT FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N71W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N76W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE TO THE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH N OF 18N BETWEEN 64W-73W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED IN THE TROPICS NEAR 12N46W WITH THE MEAN AXIS ALONG 45W COVERING THE AREA FROM 30W-65W WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG 22N54W TO 30N55W. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 47W-64W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N16W SW TO NEAR 16N33W THUS COVERING THE E ATLC WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION THROUGH 32N24W SW TO 29N32W THEN NW OUT OF THE REGION AS A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 32N35W. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 32W/33W AND DUE TO THE DRY AIR OVER THE AREA NO OTHER SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOTED. ALSO AT THE SURFACE IS A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC E OF 65W WITH A 1022 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 28N46W. $$ WALLACE