000 AXNT20 KNHC 100505 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE OCT 10 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W/56W S OF 22N MOVING W 15-20 KT. BROAD LOW/MID LEVEL WELL-DEFINED INVERTED-V IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOSTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-25N BETWEEN 50W-56W BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V STRUCTURE IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DRY AIR THUS ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 62W-67W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE STRUCTURE REMAINS OBSCURED BY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE IS BENEATH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE AND IS IN AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT DRY AIR. THUS...NO SHOWERS/CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 9N30W 12N53W 10N62W ACROSS THE N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA AND SW CARIBBEAN INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS COSTA RICA NEAR 11N84W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 200 NM OF THE AXIS E OF 32W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA AND FROM 41W-55W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC COVERING THE W GULF AND EXTENDING N OVER THE CENTRAL P0LAIN STATES. THE LARGE CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IN THE NW ATLC IS GIVING THE E GULF NW FLOW WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERING THE GULF AS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS S FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TO 23N87W BECOMING DIFFUSED TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SE GULF FROM 24N-26N E OF 87W WHILE THE REMAINING HAS RATHER CLEAR SKIES WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE REMAINING FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE W CARIBBEAN ANCHORED NEAR 13N78W EXTENDING NE ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE W ATLC COVERING THE CARIBBEAN W OF 65W WHILE AT THE LOWER LEVELS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 12N85W TO THE YUCATAN NEAR 18N89W. THIS IS GIVING THE AREA W OF 76W AN ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 13N-20N W OF 81W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC S OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 14N61W COVERING THE FAR E CARIBBEAN. THE E CARIBBEAN REMAINS CLEAR EXCEPT THE ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. MODERATE/STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... LARGE CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS IN THE NW ATLC NEAR 33N76W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N72W EXTENDING SW TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER S FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE UPPER LOW COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 26N W OF 68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN 60W-71W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 25N W OF 75W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE W CARIBBEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA CONTINUES NE TO 29N63W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A LOW NEAR 23N57W S OVER THE FAR E CARIBBEAN OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS MID/UPPER TROUGH IS ENHANCING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 55W/56W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLC OVER CUTTING THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WITH THE AXIS ALONG 46W AND COVERING THE AREA FROM 35W-55W. UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N25W S TO NEAR 16N31W THUS COVERING THE E ATLC. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC E OF 65W WITH A 1023 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 28N48W. $$ WALLACE